First F-16s finally head to Ukraine: Will they change the course of the war against Russia?

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Nato allies have transferred the first batch of US-built F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine after much delay with Dutch and Danish leaders saying they will be operational in the skies this summer. While Kyiv says this will provide a huge boost in the war against Russia, many believe it won’t be the solution it seeks. Here’s why read more

 Will they change the course of the war against Russia?

A F-16 fighter jet takes off near the German-Belgian border in Spangdahlem, German. The first batch of US-built F-16 fighter planes have been transferred to Ukraine from Denmark and the Netherlands and will be flying over Ukrainian skies this summer. File image/Reuters

After a long, long wait, Ukraine will finally get its hands on the F-16 fighter jets as the first batch of the US-built planes are being transferred to Ukraine from Denmark and the Netherlands and will be flying over Ukrainian skies this summer.

At the Nato summit being held in Washington, US President Joe Biden said, “We can — and will — defend every inch of Nato territory and we’ll do it together.” He added that Denmark and the Netherlands had begun sending US-made F-16 jets to Ukraine, making good on a key promise last year to Kyiv, which has struggled to gain parity in the air with Russia.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the F-16 transfer “concentrates Vladimir Putin’s mind on the fact that he will not outlast Ukraine, he will not outlast us.”

In a social media post, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked the US, Denmark and the Netherlands for helping “to strengthen the Ukrainian air force with F-16s”.

I am grateful to the United States, Denmark, and the Netherlands for taking practical steps to achieve the goal of all Ukrainians: to strengthen the Ukrainian air force with F-16s.

I am grateful to Belgium and Norway for their commitment to providing us with their F-16 jets.…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) July 10, 2024

But will the arrival of the F-16s change the course of the war? We explore this.

Transfer of F-16s to Ukraine

The fighter jets — equipped with a 20 mm cannon and can carry bombs, rockets and missiles — have long been on Ukraine’s wish list, almost since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. And after much negotiations, Kyiv will get its wish achieved as the planes will soon take to Ukraine skies.

It is not yet known how many aircraft are en route to Kyiv but a statement by leaders of the three countries — US, Denmark and The Netherlands — said that they have committed to donate others.

Officials have told Washington Post that Ukraine is expected to field 60 F-16s eventually.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen sit in a F-16 fighter jet at Skrydstrup Airbase in Vojens, Denmark. It is not yet known how many aircraft are en route to Kyiv. File image/Reuters

The transfer of the fighter jets to Ukraine has been a long-standing issue. Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store told The Washington Post that Ukraine’s need for the planes became even more evident after the Russian attack on a hospital, which led to the deaths of 37 children. “If you don’t have air control, you’re extremely vulnerable. And you have seen in recent weeks or months it is starting to change now the vulnerability of Ukraine of not having planes and not having sufficient air defense,” Store told the Washington Post. “When you see the brutality of the recent round of attacks from Russia … that is badly needed.”

The deadly F-16s

The F-16, designed by General Dynamics for the United States Air Force, is a supersonic fighter jet used by various militaries across the world for air-to-air combat and air-to-ground strikes. It has flown in American conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, Kosovo, the Persian Gulf and on homeland defence missions in US airspace.

Its key features are a frameless bubble canopy that provides pilots with excellent all-round visibility, an advanced ejection seat which decreases the g-forces felt during ejection, a M61 Vulcan cannon which can spit out 20mm rounds at a rate of over 6,000 per minute, and 11 hardpoints to mount missiles and other equipment.

Moreover, the F-16 is versatile, lightweight and cost-effective — with a price tag of up to $63 million, depending on the model, according to some estimates, as per a New York Times report.

Also read: 50 years of F-16s: Still flying high, soaring higher

Owing to its offensive and defensive capabilities, Ukraine has been requesting for the plane, stating that it would bolster Ukraine’s air capabilities. Last May, President Zelenskyy had told European leaders at a summit in Reykjavik, Iceland, “Without modern fighter jets, no air defence system will be perfect.”

The F-16 is a supersonic fighter jet used by various militaries across the world for air-to-air combat and air-to-ground strikes. File image/Reuters

Ukraine has said that while the MiG-29, which they currently use, are fast, they lack the endurance required for long missions, with their range being just over 1,400 km and this is where the F-16s come would be handy.

Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson of the Ukrainian air force, also told The Politico: “The F-16 will significantly improve the effectiveness of our aviation. A pilot will be able to control missiles from the air, determining the target. He can receive real intelligence in a combat environment and make appropriate decisions about hitting targets. Plus, it will be possible to use air-to-air missiles. Which can fly up to 180 kilometres.”

This will prove crucial in battlefields where Ukraine’s soldiers are being pummelled by Russian air-dropped glide bombs and missiles.

Significance to the Russia-Ukraine war

So, will the deployment of the F-16 change the course of the war? Some experts believe that F-16s will clearly bring a new political and military dimension to the war. The skies over Ukraine could become increasingly contested, stretching Russian military resources and complicating Moscow’s operational strategy.

The F-16s, according to experts, will increase Kyiv’s potential offensive and defensive air capabilities, creating a new threat against Russia.

Moreover, it will buoy the sagging morale of the armed forces personnel in Kyiv. Additionally, it will provide a clear statement to Russia of NATO’s continuing support of Ukraine, undermining Moscow’s current message that the West is abandoning Kyiv.

But, some experts argue that the F-16s won’t provide Ukraine with the support they believe it will. Mark Cancian, senior adviser with the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) told Reuters: “You’d have to separate symbolism from the actual impact on the battlefield — which will be useful but modest, particularly in the beginning.”

But the planes will also be a problem for Ukraine. As The Politico reports the bases will be prime targets for Russian attack, the planes themselves will be marked by Russian air defence systems, repairing them will be a challenge and even using unprepared runways could sabotage the delicate aircraft.

Tom Richter, a former US Marine pilot who has flown the aircraft told the US website that the plane is “a sensitive beast” compared to the Soviet-era MiG and Sukhoi jets the Ukrainians are used to flying and maintaining.

“If you ever walked up and put your hands on a MiG-29 at an air show and then walked right over and put your hands on an F-16, you can feel just from the outside how the F-16 is highly engineered. It is a prima donna, and it is very sensitive and needs high maintenance,” said Richter.

A F-16 fighter jet at Skrydstrup Air Base in Vojens, Denmark. Some experts believe that the F-16 is not a panacea for all that ails Ukraine’s armed forces and its campaign. File image/Reuters

Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, ex-deputy head of Ukraine’s general staff of armed forces, also held similar views. In an Al Jazeera report, he is quoted as saying: “They say F-16s are manna from heaven. Far from it.”

He explains that the engine’s air intake is located too low and can swallow pebbles from potholed Ukrainian airstrips – that can also be dangerous to the plane’s small wheels. Additionally, the range of missiles being provided with the F-16s is of a much bigger problem, he said.

There’s also the issue of training pilots. While some Ukrainian pilots have received training for the F-16s at Morris Air National Guard Base in Arizona in May and then moved on to additional instruction in Europe, it’s been a relatively short period of time to master the aircraft and its mechanics.

These pilots also needed English training and had to re-adapt their habits of flying Soviet-produced fighter jets that were designed to counter F-16s and their F-15 siblings. Mykhailo Zhirokhov, a military expert based in the northern Ukrainian city of Chernihiv, told Al Jazeera: “The training will be extremely basic, which is also not a plus.”

Justin Bronk, senior research fellow for airpower and technology at Royal United Services Institute is also of the same opinion. In a Reuters report, he is quoted as saying, “You can have lots of fast jets but if they don’t have effective weapons, and air crew able to employ them with effective tactics, then they will just be shot down in large numbers.”

It remains unclear how effective the F-16s, but for now it appears to be a boost for Ukraine against Russia.

With inputs from agencies

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