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Nato has been making urgent efforts to secure long-term support for Ukraine before the US presidential election, hedging against a shift in US policy if Donald Trump wins. We take a look at why the possibility of Trump returning to the White House has Nato countries and Ukraine spooked read more
 "For Nato, Ukraine, threat of Trump's return to White House has sparked a race against time")
Nato, concerned about support to Ukraine, is hedging against the possibility of Donald Trump returning to the White House. AP
United States President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign has been teetering. Following the presidential debate debacle, talk of Donald Trump returning to the White House has picked up pace.
The world is preparing for the volatile leader’s presidency. The worries are not well-hidden.
The concern has gripped Nato by the collar. It is looking to secure as much long-term aid for Ukraine as possible before the next inhabitant of the White House is decided.
We explain why the alliance is in a race against time or, more accurately, a race against the conclusion of the US presidential election.
The threat from a Trump presidency
Nato’s struggles to support Ukraine in the war that Russia started over two years ago is news to nobody. The alliance has had its fair share of trouble getting member nations to pledge funding and weapons.
Financial aid and weapons shipments from the US, too, were delayed for quite a long time because of a deadlock between House Democrats and Republicans.
A Trump presidency would make the situation a lot worse. Here’s why:
A cut in funding, military aid for Ukraine: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine started on February 24, 2022. Since then, Kyiv has received over $53.6 billion in weapons and security assistance from Washington.Data provided by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy shows that the rest of the Nato members and other partners have cumulatively provided aid worth $50 billion. That is how the Biden administration was fulfilling the US’ responsibilities as one of the great powers in the world.Trump is clearly not a fan. He has often criticised the size of US military support for Ukraine. The Republican leader’s stance is expected to be quite different from Biden’s should he assume office. After all, he has promised to end the war in 24 hours by cutting off aid to Ukraine and forcing it to capitulate.
Pressure to bow to Russia: There would be political pressure on Kyiv to bow to Putin’s demands in any peace talks, NBC News quoted Western officials as saying. This becomes even more plausible in light of the fact that Trump has avoided criticising Russia’s role in the war.
Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump is expected to pressurise Ukraine to accept a peace plan that would involve capitulating to Russia. File photo/AP
Former national security advisers to Trump have suggested a peace plan that would require significant concessions from Ukraine, including giving up the possibility of NATO membership for the foreseeable future and ceding four regions to Moscow.
Pressure on other Nato countries: Trump has bragged during campaign speeches that he would urge Russia to do as it pleases with Nato members that fail to meet their commitment to spend 2 per cent of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defence. He may be expected to ramp up pressure on other Nato members, whose economies are much smaller than the US, to contribute more.
This isn’t just fearmongering. With Trump is leading Biden by 2.1 percentage points nationally, according to a polling average maintained by FiveThirtyEight, the threat is very much real.
So, what is Nato doing to thwart such a scenario?
Making a ‘Trump-proof’ Nato
The US, under the Biden administrations, as well as European Nato members, are actively hedging against the uncertainty brought on by the November presidential polls.
The nations have signed long-term agreements to ensure Ukraine continues to receive military support and training. NATO is establishing a new command dedicated to supporting Ukraine, which will be staffed by around 700 personnel from various countries.
The $700 million contract for more Stinger missiles to Kyiv is also a part of these “Trump-proofing” efforts .
Apart from this, Ukraine and Nato member nations are also bolstering their defence production capabilities. Throughout Europe, some defense production lines which were stagnant at the time of the 2022 attack have started getting production numbers up. Nato members are increasing the amount they spend on defence, too. Out of 32 member countries, as many as 23 are expected to meet the 2 per cent commitment in 2024. Prior to the Russia-Ukraine war, that number was at a mere six.
For its part, Ukraine is developing a sophisticated drone industry, producing more weapons domestically. It is also opening a small office in Washington to strengthen its ties to the US defence industry.
Regardless of whether President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump wins the US election, Ukraine want to be in a better position to provide more of their own defence needs.
Ukraine is also trying to get close to the Republicans, and take steps to get on their good side. Andrew Weiss of the Carnegie Endowment think-tank said Kyiv has been making efforts to build “as many bridges to the Republican mainstream establishment as possible.”
“There’s a process underway in Kyiv of trying to think through the implications of a possible Trump return to the White House,” he said.
“Defence industry should be strong regardless of the elections of the parties,” Oleksandr Kamyshin, the Ukrainian Minister of Strategic Industries said. “But I heard that the Republicans stand for defense industry as well.”
With inputs from agencies
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English (US) ·