How back-channel talks involving Iran halted wider Israel-Hezbollah conflict

Despite the recent surge of rockets and drones over Israel and Lebanon, weeks of back-channel negotiations involving Iran have proved to be pivotal in avoiding a wider conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.

According to The National, citing the sources in Cairo, Beirut and other regional capitals, Arab mediators in the Gaza ceasefire talks have been steadily engaging with Tehran, keeping them informed about key developments throughout the talks.

The killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh intensified these talks and led to a new proposal: limited retaliation, at least temporarily, in exchange for enhanced influence over the ceasefire, added the report.

“Egyptian and Qatari diplomacy played a big role,” The National quoted a political source in Beirut.

“Political understandings outside the military scope were reached.  There was no written agreement, that’s for sure, but there were agreed-upon actions that wouldn’t drive the whole region to hell. Hezbollah’s retaliation was calculated, aligning with these undeclared understandings,” the source added.

In early August, Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed to make Israel “weep” following the killing of the group’s senior military commander Fouad Shukr in late July. Israel responded with threats of massive retaliation, leading to canceled flights and a heightened risk of major conflict in the region.

Less than four weeks later, Hezbollah launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Israeli targets, with Israel reporting thwarting the attack with no significant damage.

Nasrallah then announced that their response was complete, urged travelers to return, and assured that the conflict would not escalate further, at least for now.

Last month, Fouad Shukr and an Iranian military associate were killed in an Israeli strike on a densely populated area in Beirut. Soon after, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran.

These events marked a significant escalation with major repercussions for the Middle East and the Gaza ceasefire talks.

Despite the tensions and vows of retaliation, Israel, Iran, and Hamas have all expressed a desire to avoid a wider war. Ongoing efforts by Egypt, Qatar, and the US to mediate the Gaza ceasefire aim to curb the violence that is spreading instability across the region from Yemen to Syria.

Mediation intensified after assassinations

This mediation work, which also included phone calls between Egyptian, Qatari, Jordanian, Lebanese, Turkish and Iranian officials, intensified after the recent assassinations.

“Since when do the Egyptians contact the Iranians directly regarding a matter related to the Palestinian cause and the Gaza Strip? It almost never happens. But it happened this time, despite the differences between the two countries,” The National quoted another political source in Beirut as saying.

“The Egyptians wanted more time after the failure of the round of talks in Doha. They wanted to ensure that the region is quiet to ease the pressure on the talks, and the Iranians seem to have listened but in return for a bigger role in the Palestinian file,” added the source.

According to the report, citing sources familiar with the recent negotiations, which ended in Cairo on Sunday without a breakthrough but continued this week, confirm that Egyptian and Qatari mediators have ramped up their discussions with Iran on the ceasefire talks.

“Iran is a key behind-the-scenes player in the Gaza negotiations," a source was quoted as saying. “It has become even more vital after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, because he was killed in Tehran,” the source added.

Diplomatic efforts to secure a Gaza ceasefire and a hostage and detainee swap between Hamas and Israel have been ongoing through indirect US-Iran contacts, facilitated by Oman.

Egypt has urged Iran to restrict Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes, which impact Suez Canal revenue.

Although Egypt-Iran relations have warmed recently, they remain below ambassadorial level.

On Monday, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman visited Iran for talks, following a stalled ceasefire round in Cairo. While Qatar mediates for Hamas, Iran is not officially involved.

“Hezbollah’s attack took into account the prevailing regional political climate. The negotiations taking place in Cairo are under the control of the Egyptians and the US, and Hezbollah is aware of this,” The National quoted a source close to the group as saying.

Hezbollah had claimed responsibility for attacking 11 Israeli military sites, including one near Tel Aviv, with over 320 Katyusha rockets and drones in retaliation for Shukr’s assassination. This was preceded by Israeli pre-emptive strikes and followed by hits on sites in Lebanon, which Hezbollah had reportedly evacuated as a precaution.

The attack mirrored Iran’s earlier actions when Tehran launched a significant drone and missile barrage against Israel in April, in response to an attack on its Damascus consulate. Most of these projectiles were intercepted by Israel, the US, and allied forces.

“I don’t think there was a back channel, but I think that the way Hezbollah planned the attack was a way that says to Israel, I’m not looking for a full-scale war at the moment,” The National quoted Amir Avivi, a former Israeli brigadier general, as saying.

He said many Israeli attacks aimed to destroy short-range launchers, and Hezbollah’s use of UAVs to attack Gilot base suggests they anticipated Israeli defenses.

“The way Hezbollah chose to attack Gilot base, north of Tel Aviv, was with UAVs. Now I think that Hezbollah knows if they send a UAV, and it’s not a small one like the ones are using along the border, which are very small and difficult to detect – a UAV that needs to fly all the way to Tel Aviv is pretty big – they know that Israel will most likely see the UAV and foil the attack,” added Avivi.

Hezbollah-Iran coordination

Afifeh Abedi, a researcher on Iran’s foreign policy, said while Hezbollah likely coordinated with Iran, the timing and location of the attack were independently decided by Hezbollah.

“Lebanon’s Hezbollah carried out the … operation in response to the assassination of Fouad Shukr, and probably had negotiations with Iran, but the time and location of the operation were determined independently and by the decision of the Lebanese resistance," Abedi added.

Political sources in Beirut told The National that Western envoys have offered “incentives” to Hezbollah and its allies to prevent the retaliation from escalating into a full-scale war. These incentives might include political concessions, such as resolving Lebanon’s presidential deadlock.

Lebanon has been sans a president for almost two years, and ongoing divisions have led to multiple failed attempts to elect a successor. Hezbollah supports Marada leader Suleiman Frangieh, while opponents back former minister Jihad Azour.

The last major conflict between Israel and Hezbollah was in 2006, resulting in significant casualties and destruction. Today, Hezbollah is believed to possess up to 150,000 rockets and missiles, while Israel’s air force has grown substantially.

The ongoing conflict, which began on October 8 in support of Hamas in Gaza, has displaced around 100,000 Lebanese. The war has also intensified internal pressure on Hezbollah, with many fleeing to areas within Lebanon due to the dire economic situation and the ongoing Syrian civil war.

In Beirut’s southern suburbs, known as Dahieh, local residents have reported the area as largely empty following recent clashes.

A European diplomat noted that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has assured constituents that a larger war is unlikely, saying, “Nasrallah does not want to fight on the internal front and a war with Israel at the same time.”

With inputs from agencies