How long can Ukraine sustain Russian incursion? A link to Israel-Hamas war and US election

Before launching a surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region on August 6, Ukraine had tried inroads earlier this year but mostly in the form of night raids. Its soldiers would go into Russian territories at night and return before dawn. But early this month, Ukraine took Russia and much of the world by surprise, becoming an aggressor while still trying to push off an invading army.

For having kept everyone guessing about the objective of the incursion, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Sunday said the aim of the military invasion of Kursk is to create a “buffer zone” inside Russia to avert further Russian attacks.

In his nightly address, Zelenskyy also hailed Ukrainian troops and took aim at Ukraine’s benefactors. He said, “In every direction, our troops are doing an outstanding job.”

“There are no holidays in war. We need decisions — we need timely logistics for the promised aid packages. I’m specifically addressing the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. Additionally, important weeks of diplomatic work lie ahead, involving various partners — Europe, America, the Global South.”

Earlier, in his first remark after ordering his forces to occupy lands in Kursk that borders Ukraine’s northeast, Zelenskyy had said, “Russia has brought war to others, and now it is coming home.” It appeared as if Zelenskyy’s objective was to prove a point — two weeks later, the point that Ukraine can inflict damage on Russia is well noted.

But at that time, Ukraine also emphasised that it was “not interested” in holding Russian territories for long. Now, with Ukraine claiming that its forces have captured about 1,100-1,200 sq km of area in Kursk, Zelenskyy hints at a more long-term objective of turning the captured region as a buffer zone between his country and Russia. The question is — can he sustain Ukrainian incursion long enough to turn Kursk into a buffer zone?

Let’s first consider why Ukraine launched this incursion

While diverting attention was one of the key motives behind Ukraine’s launching an incursion into Kursk, the timing of the attack was crucial. It happened when a lot of things were happening in international space that threatened Ukraine’s primacy in global conflicts.

• The Israel-Hamas war: Two years after Russia invaded Ukraine threatening trans-Atlantic peace, Israel’s invasion of Gaza following Hamas’s October 7 raid in which about 1,200 Israelis were killed and more than 250 were abducted to the area controlled by the Palestinian militant group. The US-led West’s attention had shifted to resolving the Israel-Hamas crisis as it threatened to spill over into a wider West Asian war with Iran getting involved directly.

• Will it be Trump again? The US’s domestic politics witnessed significant changes with former President Donald Trump initially seemingly taking a definite lead over incumbent Joe Biden, who seemed faltering during his campaign for a second stint at the White House. Biden was forced to opt out of the presidential run in favour of his Vice-President Kamala Harris, whose entry into the electoral race has thrown the political fight more open than before. With uncertainty dominating the US politics, and the Republican Party legislators making it difficult for Biden to send more money and arms to Ukraine, Zelenskyy had to think of another vantage point to keep his country in the West’s focus.

• Fatigue in Europe: Germany, Ukraine’s biggest aid contributor in Europe, was giving signals of a cut in assistance in a few months from now. Germany’s own probe into the 2022 explosions at Nord Stream pipelines that supply Russian gas to its people showed a Ukrainian hand. Germany had issued a warrant against a Ukrainian, who was last located in Poland. These developments were becoming common knowledge in the spy network, possibly prompting the Ukrainian accused to leave Poland and reach his home country in July. Other European countries were also looking inward and while worried over Russian aggression, looked to be focussing more on West Asia and in their immediate neighbourhood.

Can Zelenskyy sustain Ukrainian incursion in Kursk?

Ukraine has claimed that its forces are making consistent forward movement in Kursk. Ukraine’s operation, aiming to bring the war to Russia, has also boosted its military morale after a prolonged period of conflict.

A Reuters report in July said the Ukrainian morale was flagging. Fighters on the front have arguably become exhausted. Zelenskyy has explained it himself saying that there are “no holidays” in war. This has been going on nonstop for two years.

On the other hand, Russia’s response to the incursion has been slow. It appears to be over two factors — one, Russia does not give great importance to Ukrainian incursion which Moscow has described as “a special military operation”; second, Russia’s military is too bureaucratic and hierarchical, causing delay in the execution of decisions taken by leaders.

Nonetheless, the invasion has forced Russia to redeploy troops. Reports suggest that about 10-12 battalions of Russian troops are being mobilised. Once this mobilisation is complete, Russia would be testing Ukrainian military offensive capabilities as the invading forces did not reportedly meet much resistance in Kursk.

Ukraine’s capacity to sustain this offensive is uncertain, given its limited manpower and resources. By invading Kursk, Ukraine has not only diverted Russian deployments and attention but its own as well. Its positions in areas like Donetsk have weakened due to its invasion of Kursk.

Ukraine is already facing manpower challenges in maintaining troop supply. To boost recruitment in the Ukrainian military, Zelenskyy lowered the draft age from 27 to 25. But the results have not been very enthusiastic.

Ukraine stays outnumbered and outgunned. Apart from its far superior armoury, Russia has managed to obtain ammunition including drones and ballistic missiles from allies such as China, Iran and North Korea despite the West imposing all kinds of sanctions it could devise. Thanks to the Ukraine war, Russia has re-energised its domestic arms manufacturing.

The Russia-Ukraine war has been asymmetric. Experts argue that Ukraine cannot sustain a prolonged war on equal footing with Russia due to its smaller military and resource constraints. Despite the successful advance, Ukraine faces significant risks, including overstretching its forces and potential supply line issues.

The operation’s long-term success is uncertain. And in most likelihood Russia’s reinforcements could eventually end the Ukrainian advance in Kursk and repel the invading forces back to the borders. A lot will depend on how early the US-led West gets an Israel-Hamas truce in pace and which way the US voters decide the presidential election in early November.