How long will Netanyahu's political gains from Haniyeh killing last?

For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, beleaguered by fierce criticism and plummeting popularity, recent news must be music to his ears. The same channels that once highlighted his faltering support are now buzzing with dramatic updates: Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas political bureau chief—dead. Mohammed Deif, the Hamas military mastermind—dead. Fuad Shukr, the prominent Hezbollah commander—dead.

Despite these victories, Netanyahu’s leadership continues to face a multifront struggle: from Iranian-backed terror groups to internal dissent within his own party, strained relations with coalition leaders, tensions with the Biden administration and widespread discontent among Israeli citizens. The discord has been so severe that even the military and civilian branches of the government were at odds over the Gaza conflict. In June, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, the chief spokesman for the armed forces, warned that the government’s failure to outline a post-war strategy for Gaza could jeopardise the hard-fought victories against Hamas, questioning the feasibility of achieving an “absolute victory.”

Internal divisions

Amid these challenges, Netanyahu found himself in conflict with some of the nation’s top political figures, including Benny Gantz and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, over his vision for the war-torn region’s future. This rift highlighted the deep divisions within the government regarding how to handle the ongoing conflict.

Additionally, tensions flared over the issue of military conscription. The Israeli military advocated for drafting more ultra-Orthodox soldiers, arguing that an increased number of conscripts was crucial to sustain the war effort. However, Netanyahu facing intense pressure from his ultra-Orthodox coalition partners moved to protect the community’s long-standing exemption from military service ensuring that their privileged status remained unchanged. This decision not only sparked controversy but also underscored the delicate balancing act Netanyahu faces as he navigates both political and military pressures.

Hostage crisis

These internal conflicts have reached a boiling point, further exacerbated by the anguish of families with loved ones taken hostage. As tensions rise, anguished families of hostages grow increasingly frustrated, demanding answers from the government about the fate of their loved ones and calling for a deal to secure their release.

Prime Minister Netanyahu found himself caught in a perilous dilemma. On one hand, pausing the conflict to negotiate a hostage release could be seen as a victory for Hamas, allowing many of its leaders, including Yahya Sinwar, to remain at large. On the other hand, rejecting a deal to advance further into Rafah risks a significant rift with the United States leaving the hostages’ fate hanging in the balance.

A leadership dilemma

The predicament of the 132 hostages still held by Hamas has become one of the most complex challenges of Netanyahu’s leadership where his political future and Israel’s national security are intricately linked. However, the decision to reach a hostage agreement isn’t solely in Netanyahu’s hands. Hamas must also agree to the terms—a critical factor often overlooked in the heated debates about the hostage deal in Israel. What Hamas has agreed to, or not, remains murky to the public, shrouded in ambiguity.

Netanyahu’s critics, and they are numerous, argue that he isn’t genuinely committed to finalsing a deal, accusing him of prioritising political expediency over resolving the hostage crisis. They claim that his recent introduction of non-negotiable conditions just as negotiations appeared promising is nothing more than an attempt to sabotage any potential agreement. Critics contend that he is resistant to a deal because accepting the current proposal could jeopardise his government.

In recent weeks, the security establishment has subtly communicated to the Israeli public its support for reaching a deal, even if it requires halting the war. Amid this ongoing debate, some argue that it is in Netanyahu’s political interest to maintain the war, even if only at a simmer, to fend off demands for new elections and the establishment of a state commission of enquiry.

Speech to the US Congress

While June was a challenging month for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, July brought some much-needed relief. His recent speech to the US Congress, coupled with the rapid elimination of key Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, has started to boost his approval ratings. As the nation celebrates these significant victories against its long-standing adversaries, Netanyahu finds himself enjoying a momentary reprieve, with the political landscape and public sentiment shifting in his favour.

On July 25, during his address to Congress, Netanyahu passionately defended his political stance and Israel’s military actions in Gaza, portraying the conflict as a battle for the nation’s very existence. In a fervent speech, he justified Israel’s campaign against Hamas, the terrorist group responsible for a brutal attack on southern Israel that resulted in the deaths of approximately 1,200 people. Netanyahu did not shy away from criticising the millions of protesters accusing Israel of war crimes and calling for a cessation of its military operations. He also made a compelling appeal to US lawmakers for increased military support.

However, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s address to Congress wasn’t just about impressing American lawmakers. It was a strategic attempt to reach the hearts and minds of Israelis thousands of miles away. With his approval ratings dwindling to just 32 per cent and a shrinking wartime cabinet, the possibility of new elections looms large. According to recent polling referred to by the Time magazine, 72 per cent of Israelis think Netanyahu should resign over the October 7 massacre. With a split in opinion, 44 per cent want him to resign immediately, while 28 per cent prefer that he wait until the conflict is resolved. This precarious situation forced Netanyahu to leverage his speech in Washington as a tool to fortify his standing at home, hoping to stabilise his teetering political future.

Prime Minister Netanyahu is no stranger to the art of persuasion and the theatrics of politics. Throughout his career, he has masterfully crafted moments that linger in public memory. Who could forget his 2012 UN presentation, where he famously illustrated the Iranian nuclear threat with a cartoon bomb or his riveting 2018 announcement unveiling Iran’s hidden nuclear archives? These are just a couple of examples of his flair for dramatic impact.

On the international stage, Netanyahu shines brightest in high-pressure situations. As the hostage crisis grips global attention, both the world and the people of Israel are waiting for him to deliver. In his latest appearance in the US Congress, Netanyahu demonstrated his talent for commanding the spotlight and steered the narrative to his benefit.

Golan Heights attack

Just as the situation seemed to be stabilising, another crisis erupted on July 28. A rocket tragically struck a football pitch in the Druze village of Majdal Shams, located in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, resulting in the deaths of 12 people, including several children. In a phone conversation with the leader of the Druze community in Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Hezbollah would face severe consequences for their actions, despite the Iran-backed Lebanese terror group denying any involvement in the attack. This incident marked the deadliest strike on Israeli or Israeli-annexed territory since the onset of the Gaza conflict.

In response to the accusations, Hezbollah issued a written statement, emphatically denying any connection to the attack. The group had previously claimed responsibility for several rocket attacks targeting Israeli military positions.

Israelis united in a common call for revenge

In the aftermath of the rocket attack on Majdal Shams, Israel appeared poised to leverage the incident to build both domestic and international support for a significant military strike against Hezbollah. The attack on the Druze village left Israelis deeply angered by the senseless loss of innocent lives.

Prime Minister Netanyahu recognised that by delivering decisive action against a prominent Hezbollah target, he could revitalise his image and gain much-needed political momentum. Timing was of the essence, and acting swiftly was crucial for his political ambitions. Consequently, Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah’s second-in-command, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut on Tuesday, dealing a significant blow to the terror organisation. As Israelis were still processing the news of avenging the football ground deaths, reports of Haniyeh’s death surfaced on Wednesday. The following day, the Israeli Defence Forces announced the death of Mohammed Deif.

During this cycle of events, Netanyahu adeptly channelled public emotion to unite the many Israeli citizens and colleagues he had previously alienated, rallying them behind him.

Shadow of Iranian retaliation

However, with Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stating that avenging Haniyeh’s death was “Tehran’s duty” and claiming that Israel had provided grounds for “harsh punishment,” the situation took a new turn. Iran’s new president, Pezeshkian, further escalated tensions by vowing to make Israel “regret” the “cowardly” killing of Haniyeh, asserting that Iran would “defend its territorial integrity, honour, pride, and dignity.” Ironically, these developments have worked in Netanyahu’s favour. The spotlight has now moved away from the deepening hostage crisis, the growing discontent within the Israeli military and the unrest in the ruling coalition as Israelis rally to support the prime minister in the face of potential Iranian retaliation.

The threats from Iranian leaders have also prompted Israel’s international allies, especially the United States, to stand firmly by its side. In a twist of fate, Iran’s aggressive rhetoric has unexpectedly helped Prime Minister Netanyahu regain substantial political support, making Israel’s enemies seem like existential threats to the State and uniting the Israeli public behind him. The possibility of an Iranian counterattack has added an external dimension to the conflict, potentially strengthening Netanyahu’s domestic position by rallying national sentiment.

Despite the resurgence of support, questions loom over how long Netanyahu can maintain this newfound political momentum. Many are eager to see if he can navigate the complex landscape of regional tensions and internal political challenges, ensuring his political survival in the face of mounting pressures. As events continue to unfold, the focus remains on Prime Minister Netanyahu’s leadership and how he will manage the precarious balance between military actions and political strategy.