How Venezuela's election became a US-China battleground

Venezuela, the South American nation that recently held presidential elections, is quickly emerging as a new battleground between the United States and China, with both Washington and Beijing supporting different candidates as the legitimate president. While the US government has recognised Venezuelan opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez as the winner of the election, China considers President Nicolas Maduro as the victor, fully endorsed by Chinese President Xi Jinping.

US and China’s differing stances on the Venezuelan election

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated in a Thursday press release that given the overwhelming evidence, it was clear to both the United States and, most importantly, the Venezuelan people that Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia had won the most votes in Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election.

According to the Carter Center, the election did not adhere to recognised global standards for fair elections and thus cannot be considered a legitimate democratic process. However, this was not a concern for Beijing. President Xi Jinping complimented Nicolas Maduro for guiding the Venezuelan government and people along a development path aligned with their national conditions.

In response to Blinken’s statement, The Global Times, a publication aligned with the Chinese government, questioned whether American politicians presume to understand the desires of the Venezuelan people better than they do themselves. The article accused the United States of intensifying its meddling in Venezuela’s affairs, attempting to reshape political landscapes through ideological sway. The Global Times further alleged that the US celebrates elections as democratic triumphs only when its preferred candidates emerge victorious, otherwise, the elections are dismissed as rigged and opaque.

The article argued that the US played a significant role in inciting Venezuela’s opposition to reject Maduro as the legitimate president in 2019, illustrating a broader pattern where any political force opposing American elites becomes a target. Furthermore, the piece claims that the US has long prioritised its geopolitical aims over adherence to international law.

Row over election results

In a controversial move, the National Electoral Council declared Maduro the winner of Sunday’s eagerly awaited election, the AP reported. However, his main challenger, Gonzalez, along with opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, countered by asserting that they had secured over two-thirds of the tally sheets printed by each electronic voting machine after the polls closed. They maintain that revealing this data would show that Maduro had actually lost. Amid this political turmoil, the US government announced its support for diplomatic efforts to pressure Maduro into releasing the vote tallies.

China’s support for Maduro

President Xi wasted no time in sending his congratulations on Tuesday after the Venezuelan National Electoral Council announced that Maduro had claimed victory with 51 per cent of the vote. According to Xinhua News Agency, Xi said that China would continue to firmly support Venezuela’s efforts to safeguard national sovereignty, national dignity and social stability, as well as Venezuela’s just cause of opposing external interference.

China regards Venezuela, a country facing US sanctions, as one of its most crucial global allies. Their relationship was elevated to an “all-weather strategic partnership” last September when Maduro made his first trip to Beijing in five years, according to a report by Nikkei Asia. During his previous visit, Venezuela officially became part of the Belt and Road Initiative, Xi’s ambitious diplomatic project to enhance infrastructure development worldwide.

China’s financial commitment to Venezuela

China’s commitment to Venezuela isn’t just talk. It’s backed by substantial financial support.

Venezuela has secured more Chinese loans than any other country in Latin America, as reported by the Inter-American Dialogue and Boston University Global Development Policy Center. The China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China have extended $59.2 billion to the Venezuelan government and state-owned enterprises, nearly twice the amount loaned to Brazil, a key ally of China in alliances like BRICS and the Global South movement.

Implications for Latin America and beyond

In Carlos Solar’s analysis, titled Venezuela’s Bolivarian Nightmare Continues: What Does it Mean for the West? published in RUSI, he argued that Maduro’s self-proclaimed victory will only tighten Venezuela’s bonds with Russia, China, Cuba, Iran and other governments in Latin America, such as Honduras, Nicaragua and Bolivia.

Backed by the strong political support of Moscow and Beijing, Caracas has cultivated a security and defence network that aligns closely with Russia and China. Maduro is set to continue guiding Venezuela’s foreign affairs and military forces with a focus on expanding military ties with China, Russia and Iran. This includes engaging in joint military exercises, facilitating officer exchanges, acquiring military assets and sharing technology.

Looking ahead, Venezuela’s defence partnership with Moscow, Tehran and Beijing is expected to persist, primarily through political dialogues and small-scale military collaborations. Given its challenging economic circumstances, Venezuela is unlikely to make significant purchases of Russian, Iranian or Chinese heavy military equipment in the near future. Instead, Maduro is likely to prioritise access to drones, cyber technologies and cost-effective ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) systems to manage the country’s porous borders and assert power over neighbouring regions, wrote Solar.

Economic challenges and investor uncertainty

Maduro’s new government, set to begin in January 2025 and last for six years, if at all that happens, faces the urgent task of reviving Venezuela’s nearly collapsed oil industry. Many private investors, who were hoping for a business-friendly approach under a potential Gonzalez government, now find themselves waiting in uncertainty or forced to continue dealing with a Maduro regime known for its unpredictability and tendency to nationalise privately owned assets.

More noticeably, Maduro seems content to let the economy spiral out of control as long as he benefits from the chaos. He has shown no intention of reversing the current migration crisis with an estimated 8.4 million Venezuelans having left the country—more than a quarter of its 2015 population. For many migrants, the reality has been disheartening, especially for those in Colombia, Chile, Peru, or Ecuador, where unskilled workers often face low wages and challenging living conditions.

Maduro’s precarious future

However, Maduro faces a precarious future as he remains under the threat of increased sanctions and international pressure. The global community’s disdain for him is evident and he may find himself at risk of international arrest warrants. In 2020, the US State Department accused Maduro and other high-ranking officials of narcoterrorism alleging their involvement in drug trafficking. They even offered a £12.5 million reward for information leading to his capture. The decision to pursue his arrest ultimately rests with the US government. Whether under President Donald Trump in the past or President Joe Biden currently, Maduro has consistently been at odds with the US. Should Trump regain power next year, Maduro may find it increasingly difficult to withstand US pressure.