Is Netanyahu waiting to capture or kill Hamas’s Yahya Sinwar to end the Gaza war?

The Cairo meeting held to seal a Gaza ceasefire deal failed to yield any concrete results. Hamas rejected it, reiterating its support for the previous (May-July) proposals to agree for a truce with Israel, which has maintained that it won’t end the war until it has completely rooted out the Palestinian armed group. Good thing is that the talks will continue to explore new middle ground to have a ceasefire.

As another hope for a deal collapsed on Sunday, pressure is building on Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with the rival and the families of people taken hostage by Hamas in October 7 raids blaming him for the failure to have a truce deal. Reports also emerged of Netanyahu’s growing differences with those negotiating on the behalf of his government in Cairo talks.

‘No time to lose’

Months-long talks at various locations across West Asia and north African country Egypt have not succeeded in halting Israel’s military campaign in Gaza or free people abducted by Hamas more than 10 months ago.  

This has caused frustration among agencies working to arrive at a peaceful solution. UN peace envoy Tor Wennesland posted on social media, “There is no time to lose.”

He described the Cairo ceasefire/hostage release talks as “crucial to saving civilian lives, reducing regional tensions and enabling the UN” to accelerate efforts to address the pressing needs of Gaza’s long-suffering population.  

The American leaders have said the Biden administration is working round the clock to end the crisis. The US sent its chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, General CQ Brown, to West Asia over the weekend in an unannounced visit. He is said to have come on a specific task of discussing ways to avoid further escalation in tensions, particularly directly involving Iran.  

However, Sunday saw sharp escalation in military engagement between Israel and Hezbollah, who exchanged hundreds of missiles throughout the day. The Lebanon-based and Iran-backed Hezbollah called its attack a response to the assassination of its commander Fuad Shukr in July in a Beirut suburb. Israel had announced Fuad Shukr’s killing.

On Monday, Iran released a statement saying that its Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi spoke with his Italian counterpart Antonio Tajani over phone. The statement read, ”Iran does not seek to increase tensions. However, it is not afraid of it.”

The statement, however, also said its response to the killing of the Hamas chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran would be “definite and calculated”. Iran blames Israel for the assassination of Haniyeh on July 31, which Araqchi described to Tajani as “an unforgivable violation of Iran’s security and sovereignty”. Unlike Shukr’s killing, Israel has not claimed responsibility for the killing of Haniyeh, nor has it denied its role.

Hezbollah says it will halt its attacks on Israel if there is a ceasefire in Gaza. Iran has also indicated that if a ceasefire deal is struck for Gaza, it would reconsider its vow to attack Israel to avenge Haniyeh’s killing in its capital.

Is Netanyahu obstructing a deal?

Hamas has repeatedly blamed Netanyahu for the lack of progress during the talks. The accusation against Netanyahu is that whenever a deal seems in sight, he allegedly imposes new demands for a deal to happen. Some of his rivals inside Israel and critics outside have also accused him of not being serious enough about reaching a ceasefire agreement.

Such allegations get credence of reports that Netanyahu has locked horns with Israeli ceasefire negotiators. Over the past few days, it emerged that Netanyahu insisted, without being in sync with Israeli negotiators, that he would not order his troops to pull out of the so-called Philadelphi Corridor in the south of the Gaza Strip.  

The Philadelphi Corridor borders Egypt, and along with the Netzarim Corridor, cuts across the middle of the Gaza Strip. The two corridors have been the latest major sticking points in talks that were backed by Egypt, Qatar and the US.

Netanyahu’s argument has been that Hamas smuggles its weapons through the Philadelphi Corridor, and to keep the Palestinian group from rearming itself, Israel can’t give up control of the corridor. He also argues that Hamas fighters use the Netzarim Corridor for secret movements between south and north parts of Gaza, making it difficult to track them. So, Netanyahu wants Israel-manned checkpoints on the corridor.

Israeli media have reported that Netanyahu feels that the negotiating team led by the Mossad intelligence service chief David Barnea has made too many concessions in the truce talks. He reportedly insists that the truce will happen only when his concerns are addressed.

Additionally, the families of the Israeli hostages who are still in Hamas’s captivity in Gaza have been pressuring Netanyahu to seal a deal for their release. They have accused him of hindering the deal to boost his political image in domestic politics.

Israeli media has reported that these families have alleged that Netanyahu has “systematically thwarted” a prisoner swap deal with the Palestinian factions.  

During a press conference on Saturday that the families held in front of Israel’s defence ministry headquarters in Tel Aviv, they said, “Since early July, a deal has been ready for signing, but Netanyahu’s new conditions, particularly the Philadelphi Route, are blocking it.”

“It’s not the Philadelphi Route but a Philadelphi spin,” one member said as the families appealed to US President Joe Biden to pressure Netanyahu to give his nod to the exchange deal.

What Netanyahu says about ending the war

Netanyahu has maintained that he would not order ending the war in Gaza until his troops have achieved a total victory against Hamas — even if a deal is reached. However, this position of Netanyahu does not have a wider support even within his cabinet.  

The Israeli prime minister is under pressure from hardliners in his own cabinet to not yield to the pressure of reaching a peace deal. In domestic politics, the war is said to have boosted his image, with opinion polls indicating a pick-up in his ratings, which were disastrous at the start of the war.

But critics say that political image boost has come at a huge cost — more than 40,000 deaths in Gaza, 2.3 million people displaced due to the war, deaths of more than 50 hostages and a crisis starting to set in Israel’s economy due to war expense pressures.

Is Netanyahu looking for Yahya Sinwar?

While Netanyahu continues to insist on the eradication of Hamas, the fact is that the Palestinian group has been devastated, its military capability destroyed. It would take years before Hamas gets back to its pre-October raid strength, if at all. The Gaza population has suffered immensely and as a ruling dispensation, Hamas will have to focus on rebuilding their lives.

There is intense speculation that Netanyahu is looking for a ‘high’ to announce the end of the Gaza war — pointing to an intense chase of Hamas’s new leader Yahya Sinwar by the Israeli and American intelligence agencies.  

Sinwar, who is 61, was recruited in Hamas by its founder Sheik Ahmed Yassin in the 1980s. He climbed the leadership ladder quickly and took over a Hamas wing tasked with finding and punishing Palestinians the group suspected of collaborating with Israeli authorities. His wing was also responsible for punishing those committing blasphemy.

He became Hamas’s top political leader this month after Haniyeh was killed in Tehran. But Israeli and American spies were after him much before he became the official head of Hamas. His role was considered instrumental in the October 7 raids. Immediately after this, the US’s Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), NYT reported, formed a special mission to assist Israel in finding Sinwar.

But Sinwar has evaded all electronic and human surveillance by Israel and the US. He is said to have stopped using electronic devices for communicating with his Hamas cadres — a strategy used efficiently by the likes of former al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden and former Taliban leader Mullah Omar in Afghanistan-Pakistan region.

Unlike Haniyeh, Sinwar has lived in Gaza before he was captured by Israel in the 2000s and after being released in 2011. This explains his ability to move around in Gaza tunnels and control his cadre better than Haniyeh who lived in Doha, Qatar, or in Tehran, Iran.  

Sinwar is definitely Hamas’s most important figure. His capture or killing by Israeli forces may be the statement that Netanyahu is looking to make that he has eradicated Hamas and broken its rank and file.