Lok Sabha election results 2024: Why BJP’s fate lies in the hands of Bihar CM Nitish Kumar

In a huge upset for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the party has failed to reach the majority mark of 272 on its own in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the saffron party is ahead in 292 seats and the Opposition INDIA bloc in 232 seats.

With the BJP vying for a third consecutive term at the Centre, it would be looking at its allies to fulfill its goal. All eyes are now on Telugu Desam Party’s (TDP) Chandrababu Naidu and Janata Dal (United) or JD(U)’s Nitish Kumar, who could very well be the kingmakers in these general elections.

With Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar’s track of several flip flops in recent years, the BJP and even the INDIA bloc might try to woo him. The JD(U) is currently a part of the BJP-led NDA.

But could that change? Let’s take a look.

2024 Bihar Lok Sabha election results

As per the latest trends released by the Election Commission of India (ECI), the BJP and its ally JD(U) are winning 12 seats each out of the 40 Lok Sabha constituencies in Bihar.

The saffron party has clinched eight seats and is leading in four, while Nitish’s party is ahead in six seats and has won six more. The NDA partner, Lok Janshakti Party(Ram Vilas), seems to be securing all five seats it contested.

Another NDA ally, Hindustani Awam Morcha’s (Secular) leader Jitan Ram Manjhi has won from the Gaya Lok Sabha seat, securing 494,960 votes and defeating the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) candidate by over one lakh votes.

The BJP , which was seen as the senior partner to the JD(U) in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections, fought on 17 seats, one more than Nitish’s party. As per NDA’s seat-sharing formula, HAM(S) and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) were given one seat each.

In the case of the INDIA coalition, the RJD fielded candidates on 26 seats, Congress on nine seats, and the Left parties on the remaining five, as per Indian Express.

The RJD has an edge in three seats and has bagged one despite its highest vote share among all parties: 22.08 per cent. The JD(U) has a vote share of nearly 19 per cent and the BJP has 20.48 per cent.

The RJD and Congress have failed to trump the NDA in Bihar. PTI File Photo

The Congress has won three seats and a vote share of a little over nine per cent.

The Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) (Liberation) - CPI(ML)(L) could secure two seats.

Nitish’s ‘Paltu Ram’ ways

The doubts about where Nitish Kumar’s loyalties lie are not without substance.

The veteran politician has a long association with NDA and has served even as a Union minister in the government of Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1998-99 and then again in 2000-2004.

However, he has switched sides often in recent years. In 2014, the senior JD(U) leader left the NDA to protest against Narendra Modi’s rise at the national level, as per Indian Express. He went on to contest the Bihar Lok Sabha polls alone but managed to win only two seats.

Nitish forged an alliance with his frenemy Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD in the 2015 Assembly elections in Bihar. While they formed the government, Nitish ditched its new partner within two years.

The Bihar CM went back to the NDA, with the alliance, which also included Lok Janshakti Party of Ram Vilas Paswan, sweeping 39 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in 2019.

A year later, the JD(U) won just 43 out of the 243 Assembly constituencies in Bihar, with the saffron party emerging as a senior partner with 74 seats.

Despite the BJP’s more seats, Nitish took oath as the chief minister. However, as he grew “increasingly uncomfortable” with the saffron party, he broke the alliance and joined hands with the RJD in 2022, according to Indian Express.

In January this year, Nitish Kumar, who is infamous as “Paltu Ram” in Bihar, took a U-turn and returned to the NDA fold.

The move took many by surprise as it was the JD(U) chief who had spearheaded the efforts to form the INDIA coalition. He had approached the Congress and other anti-BJP parties to take on Narendra Modi’s BJP and stop the NDA juggernaut in the 2024 polls.

Nitish’s prime ministerial ambitions are an open secret. While he publicly said he left the INDIA bloc because of a delay in seat-sharing talks, NDTV sources said that the Bihar CM quit the alliance as he was not even being considered for the PM post should the Opposition win.

ALSO READ: Lok Sabha election results 2024: From Amethi to Nanded, key seats BJP is losing to INDIA bloc

Is another flip-flop in the making?

Even though the BJP is not winning a majority on its own, it is still the single-largest party this election, poised to bag 240 seats.

It will now need its allies to form the government. Nitish’s JD(U) could play a key role in making that happen.

For now, his party leaders have denied any plan to switch sides. “…We continue with our previous stand. Under the leadership of Nitish Kumar, JD(U) once again expresses its support for NDA… We are with the NDA, we will continue to be with the NDA,” JD(U) spokesperson KC Tyagi told News18.

“We are firmly with the NDA. We will form the government at the Centre,” JD(U) minister Madan Sahani reportedly said.

Bihar deputy CM Samrat Choudhary had arrived at Nitish’s residence in Patna on Tuesday (4 June).

A day before the Lok Sabha results, Nitish Kumar visited Delhi and met Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The JD(U) had dubbed it a “courtesy call”, as per Indian Express.

#WATCH | Bihar CM Nitish Kumar met PM Narendra Modi at the latter's residence in Delhi today. pic.twitter.com/pG7WGbyHxz

At a rally in Aurangabad in March, the Bihar CM had assured PM Modi of his loyalty. “You had come earlier as well but I had vanished. But I am with you now. I assure you that I will not go here and there. I will stay with you only,” he had said.

The Opposition INDIA has indicated its doors are open for Nitish if he wants to return. There were also reports that veteran leader Sharad Pawar of the INDIA bloc dialled the Bihar CM as results were trickling in. However, earlier today, the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar) leader rejected the speculations.

The RJD is hoping Nitish and Chandrababu Naidu, whose TDP has registered a landslide victory in both Assembly and Lok Sabha polls in Andhra Pradesh, would dump NDA as both leaders have a “dislike for vendetta politics”.

“We have been, formerly, in alliance with both Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu. We know they share a dislike for vendetta politics which the BJP stands for. Narendra Modi seems to be on his way out. We are hopeful that the two leaders will play a crucial role in the change of guard at the Centre,” RJD spokesperson Manoj Kumar Jha said, as per News18.

When asked if the RJD’s Lalu Prasad and Tejashwi Yadav were in touch with Nitish, he replied: “Those who need to contact him are talking to him. Our leader Tejashwi Yadav has been saying for some time that Nitish Kumar will take a big decision around 4 June”.

Will Nitish Kumar make the BJP eat crow? Or, will he remain loyal this time? Only time will tell.

With inputs from agencies