‘Maha’ worry: Are chasms developing within the ruling Mahayuti alliance?

The 18th Lok Sabha election results brought jubilation for some political parties and worry for others. However, some found themselves experiencing both emotions as voters’ mandate came to light. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would probably associate with this third category.

While the saffron party has succeeded in returning to power at the Centre for a third term in a row, it failed to secure a majority on its own, leading to the formation of a coalition government. The third National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken charge. But the saffron party is still not out of the woods.

If reports are to be believed, trouble is brewing in the Mahayuti alliance, comprising the BJP, Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) camp headed by Ajit Pawar, in Maharashtra.

But why? Let’s understand.

Why Mahayuti bloc needs to worry

The Maharashtra Lok Sabha election results have given a reason for the ruling Mahayuti alliance in the state to lose sleep.

The Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), consisting of Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT), Congress, and Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar), clinched 30 out of 48 Lok Sabha seats.

The Mahayuti managed to bag just 17 seats, with the BJP getting nine, Shinde Sena seven and Ajit Pawar’s NCP one.

The ruling Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra won only 17 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state. PTI File Photo

The remaining one seat was won by an Independent candidate – Vishal Patil – who has extended support to the Congress.

The results assume significance as Maharashtra is set to hold Assembly elections in a few months.

Since the results came out, chasms have started erupting in the ruling Mahayuti bloc over various issues, including the recent allocation of ministerial berths in the third Modi government.

Is Ajit Pawar’s NCP miffed?

Ajit Pawar’s NCP had reportedly asked for a Cabinet berth in Modi 3.0.

However, it was given a Minister of State (independent charge) post by the BJP. The NCP led by the Maharashtra deputy chief minister rejected the offer. As of now, there is no Union minister from the party in the Modi government.

As per The Hindu, Pawar said he would not accept a position below a Cabinet berth and is ready to wait for the next Cabinet reshuffle.

Similarly, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena was expecting a Cabinet berth, along with a Minister of State (MoS) position.

NCP MLA Anna Bansode expressed disgruntlement over the issue. “Maharashtra’s expectation was that both the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP be awarded Cabinet berths. We have two MPs in Sunil Tatkare and Praful Patel (Rajya Sabha member). Our party’s expectation was that at least Mr. Patel, who has been a Cabinet minister in the past, be given a berth this time. Hence, the cadre of these parties are upset by our parties being excluded from the Union Cabinet,” he told The Hindu.

Doubts about the future of the Mahayuti alliance rose last week when Sharad Pawar’s grandnephew and his party MLA Rohit Pawar claimed 18-19 MLAs of Ajit Pawar ’s NCP were in touch with the veteran politician.

”They are eager to return but our party chief will take the final decision. We will take the decision based on how a particular MLA has behaved…Those who have been offensive will not be taken,” he reportedly said.

However, the NCP camp has rejected these claims.

Ajit’s recent praise for his uncle, Sharad Pawar, has also added fuel to the fire. On Monday (10 June), the NCP president spoke highly of the veteran politician at the foundation day event of the party.

“Sharad Pawar set up NCP 25 years ago over the nationality of Congress’ Sonia Gandhi. I am thankful to him for leading the party and providing powerful leadership to the organisation,” he said, as per Times of India (TOI).

The newspaper says this is the first such adulation for Pawar Senior by his nephew who split the NCP into two last July. His remarks have also garnered attention as they come in the wake of the Lok Sabha results.

Ajit Pawar also told the party workers about why they turned down the MoS with independent charge, citing Praful Patel’s extensive experience as Cabinet minister in the UPA government.

Notably, the deputy CM added that the NCP told the BJP leadership that the party would “wait for some time and will continue with NDA.”

What has Shinde-led Shiv Sena said?

The Shinde-led Sena has also expressed disappointment over being denied a Cabinet role in the Modi government.

A day after the Union ministers took the oath of office in Delhi, Shinde Sena MP Shrirang Barne said his party is “one of the oldest allies” of the BJP and was “expecting a Cabinet berth” after it won seven of the 15 seats it contested.

He pointed out the proportion of other NDA allies in the new Council of Ministers.

“HD Kumaraswamy [of the Janata Dal (Secular)] with two MPs was given a Cabinet berth. Likewise, despite Jitan Ram Manjhi [Hindustani Awami Morcha] being the sole elected MP of his party, he was made a Cabinet Minister. Chirag Paswan [Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas)] who got five MPs, less than the Shiv Sena, was made a Cabinet Minister. Considering our strike rate, we certainly deserved a Cabinet berth and an MoS. Likewise, even Ajit Pawar’s NCP deserved a Cabinet berth,” Barne said, as per The Hindu.

#WATCH | Pimpri Chinchwad, Maharashtra | On Shiv Sena getting one MoS seat in Central govt, party MP Shrirang Barne says, "Shiv Sena is an old ally of BJP-NDA. Yesterday, Shiv Sena got one MoS seat, but I think the party should have got a Cabinet berth like Majhi ji's and… pic.twitter.com/G1R5V71M5O

Shinde Sena MP Jadhav Prataprao Ganpatrao is the party’s sole representative in the Union Cabinet. He has been allocated the AYUSH ministry and Health and Family Welfare ministry as an MoS with independent charge.

Shinde Sena has tried to downplay Barne’s remarks. Eknath Shinde’s son, Shrikant Shinde, said his party was supporting the Modi government unconditionally.

“This nation has asked for, and needs, the leadership of Prime Minister Modi. There is no bargaining or negotiation for power. We have extended unconditional support to an ideological coalition. We want Prime Minister Modi to carry forward the noble work of nation building. Our party and all its MLAs and MPs are faithfully committed to the NDA,” Shrikant said in a statement.

What is the future of Mahayuti allies?

The Lok Sabha election results have come as a wake-up call for the Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra.

The sudden announcement by BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis, who offered to step down as the deputy chief minister after the dismal electoral performance, also added a “sense of unease in the coalition,” as per a Deccan Herald (DH) report.

Later, the former Maharashtra CM took a U-turn, saying he is “not someone who runs away.”
Fadnavis is considered the architect of the Mahayuti bloc.

The results have exposed the fault lines within the ruling alliance. Speaking to CNBC-TV 18 after the results, a senior Shinde Sena leader said, “We knew Ajit Pawar was doing to drag us down. We, in fact, raised the concern and told the same to (the) BJP. But the BJP didn’t listen to us. You can see what it did to our alliance.”

Talking about the upcoming Assembly polls, the leader said, “If Ajit Pawar is not dropped from the alliance, he will once again drag us down. We will express our concerns once again so that proper course correction can happen on time.”

The CNBC-TV 18 report mentioned that similar views were expressed by several BJP workers on the day of polling in Baramati, an important seat for the Pawar family.

They said that while the BJP and Shinde Sena share a common Hindutva ideology, which made it easier for them to convince voters that it was a “natural” alliance, this was not the case with the Ajit Pawar-led NCP. “We knew including Pawar in the Mahayuti alliance was a bad idea. We, ourselves, were not convinced so we failed to convince our voters to vote for Pawar’s candidates,” the BJP workers told CNBC-TV 18.

Amid rumblings within the ruling alliance, the Opposition MVA is having a field day.

Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut claimed Shinde Sena MLAs are in touch with his party. “The MLAs are not in touch with me but are in touch with our party leaders. After their defeat in the Lok Sabha, they (MLAs in Shinde camp) have realised where they stand and therefore have gotten in touch with our leaders,” he told Indian Express, adding that the party has not yet decided about taking them back.

However, Shinde Sena has rubbished his claims, countering that two newly elected MPs of Uddhav Sena and its MLAs have sent feelers to the ruling party.

Congress MLA and leader of Opposition in the Maharashtra Assembly Vijay Wadettiwar says “40” MLAs of Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP want to return to their respective parent parties.

He also told the NCP camp of Ajit Pawar to forget about getting any Cabinet berth in the future.

“Their [Ajit Pawar faction’s] bargaining power is over. It is a case of eat whatever you get. Within the next couple of months, 40 MLAs from both the Shinde Sena and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP will return back to their original parties,” Wadettiwar said, as per The Hindu.

As cracks develop within the Mahayuti alliance, can it survive until the Assembly elections or will we witness more instability in Maharashtra politics? Only time will tell.

With inputs from agencies