Mahayuti rift: Will the BJP-led alliance collapse before the Maharashtra Assembly polls?

A rift within the ruling Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra has come out in the open since the results of the Lok Sabha elections. The leaders of the bloc have taken potshots at each other publicly over the recent hit-and-run case and alleged drug use in Pune.

Before the wrangling could die down, a Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leader’s remarks have added fuel to the fire. Speculations have arisen that the Mahayuti alliance constituents, comprising Ajit Pawar-led NCP, the Shiv Sena led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), could go their separate ways for the Maharashtra Assembly polls slated later this year.

What’s going on? Let’s understand.

BJP, NCP attack each other

The recent viral video of drugs and liquor allegedly being supplied to minors at a lounge in Pune has triggered a war of words between the BJP and its ally NCP.

On Monday (June 24), BJP minister Chandrakant Patil said that such things did not occur when he was the Guardian minister of Pune district, reported Pune Mirror.

BJP minister Chandrakant Patil (L) took a veiled dig at NCP’s Ajit Pawar. File Photo/PTI

However, he tried to soon damage control, saying he could not remember any such incident during his tenure and he could not vouch if such incidents would not take place in the future, as per Indian Express.

NCP spokesperson Amol Mitkari targeted Patil by tweeting, “The narcotics issue in the city had got pushed during the tenure of Patil as Guardian minister. There was political cover to pubs, narcotics, dance bars during the tenure of Patil and they are coming out after Ajit Pawar took over as Guardian minister who does not support such illegal activities.”

Another BJP leader jumped into the row, saying Mitkari “needs to control his mouth”.
“He was warned by his state unit chief in the past for such behaviour. The NCP leader should not make statements that will lead to cracks within the ruling alliance,” senior BJP leader Pravin Darekar was quoted as saying by Indian Express.

Will Mahayuti members contest polls separately?

NCP leader Mitkari has indicated that the constituents of the Mahayuti alliance may fight the Maharashtra Assembly elections independently if each member insists on contesting on 100 seats.

He made the remarks at an event on Tuesday, highlighting the impracticality of such demands. The Maharashtra Assembly has 288 seats.

“If each constituent adamantly insists on contesting 100 assembly seats in the upcoming state elections, then the parties will have to contest separately. With only 288 assembly seats available, being offered only 55 seats would be unacceptable for the party,” Mitkari, who is also an MLC, said, as per the news agency PTI.

As per The New Indian Express (TNIE) report, the BJP wants to contest “150 seats” as it is the main national party in the alliance with most MLAs – 105. While the Shinde Sena is demanding 90-100 seats, the NCP reportedly wants 90 seats.

Responding to Mitkari’s remarks, Darekar, BJP legislative party leader in the Legislative Council, called for senior NCP leaders to “rein” him.

“The party’s chief or state president should clarify whether Mitkari is authorised to make such comments. Seat-sharing discussions will take place among the top leaders,” the BJP leader reportedly said.

A senior NCP leader told TNIE that the seat-sharing issue must be resolved by the alliance partners, otherwise “it may cause damage if prolonged as it did in the Lok Sabha elections”.

Cracks within Mahayuti

The debacle in the Lok Sabha elections has bared the fault lines within the ruling Mahayuti.
Reports have come to light that the BJP is unhappy with the NCP over the results, with some even questioning the alliance with Ajit Pawar’s party.

The Mahayuti managed to bag just 17 Lok Sabha seats, with the BJP getting nine, Shinde Sena seven and Ajit Pawar’s NCP one.

This was the saffron party’s worst performance in Maharashtra since 1998.

The Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), consisting of Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT), Congress, and NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar), clinched 30 out of 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state.

Ajit’s wife, Sunetra Pawar, failed to unseat her sister-in-law and Sharad Pawar ’s daughter Supriya Sule from the Pawar family’s Baramati home turf.

According to Indian Express, one of the main reasons identified by the BJP’s core committee meeting held in Delhi last week for the party’s dismal performance in the western state was the lack of coordination between the allies at the grassroots level.

Voices from within the Shinde Sena and the BJP also blamed the NCP for the ruling coalition’s Lok Sabha fiasco.

Speaking to CNBC-TV 18 earlier, BJP workers had said they could not convince their supporters to vote for the NCP as there is no common factor that binds them together. “We knew including Pawar in the Mahayuti alliance was a bad idea. We, ourselves, were not convinced so we failed to convince our voters to vote for Pawar’s candidates,” the workers said.

An article in the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) mouthpiece Organiser raised questions about the BJP forging an alliance with Ajit Pawar-led NCP.

“Sharad Pawar would have faded away over the next two to three years. The conflict between Supriya Sule and Ajit Pawar to control the party would have affected the party prospects. Why did the BJP heed the ill-advised step to go in alliance with Ajit Pawar NCP?” RSS ideologue Ratan Sharda wrote in the piece.

All is not hunky dory between the BJP and CM Shinde’s party either. The saffron party is wary of Shinde Sena, with one insider describing the party as “shrewd”, Indian Express reported.

On the other hand, the Shinde Sena has accused the BJP of “misleading” them through its poll surveys.

However, the BJP is unlikely to break up with its alliance partners before the polls. If it snubs Ajit-led NCP, it would be attacked by its rival with the charge of indulging in “use and throw” politics.

So far, the saffron party has maintained the alliance will continue.

As per Indian Express, BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule said earlier, “The BJP’s alliance with the Shiv Sena and NCP is a reality in the state government. It will remain for the 2024 Assembly polls.”

With inputs from agencies