Mozambique's economic future in balance as nation goes to the polls

Mozambique votes for a new president, governors and members of parliament on Wednesday as jihadist violence stalls natural gas projects that could bring a major boost to its morose economy.

One of the poorest countries in the world, the discovery in 2010 of vast offshore gas deposits in the north raised hopes of boosting government revenues.

But projects have been stalled since 2021 by an Islamist insurgency in northernmost Cabo Delgado province linked to the Islamic State.

An estimated 17 million people in the southern African nation have registered to vote in polls scheduled to open from 7:00 am to 6:00 pm (0500 GMT to 1600 GMT). Results are expected around two weeks later.

The ruling socialist Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo) is expected to win despite disillusionment with the party, which has held on to power since independence from Portugal half a century ago.

If elected, Frelimo’s relatively unknown candidate, 47-year-old Daniel Chapo will replace 65-year-old President Filipe Nyusi, who steps down after his two terms allowed under the constitution.

Chapo, a provincial governor, will compete with three other presidential candidates including Ossufo Momade, 63, an MP and leader of the main opposition party, Renamo.

Another contender is 50-year-old Venancio Mondlane, who lost a mayoral race in 2023 under Renamo’s banner and claimed widespread electoral fraud.

The charismatic Mondlane, popular among young voters, quit the party in June and joined forces with the smaller Optimistic Party for the Development of Mozambique (Podemos).

The other main candidate is Lutero Simango, 64, president of the centre-right Mozambique Democratic Movement and an outspoken critic of Frelimo, whose leaders he describes as “thieves dressed in red”, the party’s colour.

Fears of manipulation

Analysts have voiced concerns about the integrity of the election process after claims of widespread manipulation in previous votes.

In 2019, opposition parties disputed the results that gave Frelimo 73 percent, denouncing what they said was electoral fraud.

After municipal elections in 2023 were seen as fraudulent, protests erupted in major cities in which police “accidentally” killed several people.

“Nothing is going to change,” said Domingos Do Rosario, a political science lecturer at Maputo’s Eduardo Mondlane University, pointing to weak institutions and rife political bargaining.

The electoral commission “is a joke”, he said. “It manufactures voters,” he added, expressing doubt over the body’s claim to have registered 17 million voters from a largely young population of 33 million.

“The integrity of the electoral process is a serious problem,” said researcher Borges Nhamirre from Pretoria’s Institute for Security Studies.

Frelimo’s decision to pick the relatively inexperienced Chapo as its candidate could be a strategy to influence his choice of appointees to key government positions, Nhamirre added.

Poverty, violence

Chapo’s election would mark a generational change: he would be the first Mozambican president born after independence and the first not to have fought in the devastating 1975-1992 war between Frelimo and Renamo.

Addressing one of the major concerns of Mozambique today, Chapo said Frelimo was determined to end the jihadist attacks that have plagued gas-rich Cabo Delgado province since 2017.

“We will continue to work so Mozambique stays a country of peace, including in Cabo Delgado,” he said at Frelimo’s final campaign rally on Sunday.

“We want to continue fighting against terrorism.”

According to the African Development Bank, 74.5 percent of the population of the Indian Ocean country, battered by cyclones and drought, lived in poverty in 2023.