Why Congress’ Haryana loss will be a disadvantage for it in Maharashtra, Jharkhand

The Haryana poll loss has put the Congress in a tough spot. Its INDIA bloc partners have their knives out, calling for the party to introspect and rethink its election strategy.

In a shock defeat, the Congress, which was predicted by exit polls to win Haryana, managed to secure only 37 of the 90 Assembly seats with a 39.09 per cent vote share. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged as the winner with 48 seats and 39.94 per cent vote share.

The Congress’ lacklustre performance in Jammu and Kashmir rubbed salt into its Haryana wound. The Grand Old Party, which fought the Assembly elections in a tie-up with the National Conference (NC), won only six of the 32 seats it contested. The Congress will come to power in the Union Territory due to its ally NC, which bagged 42 of the 51 seats it fielded candidates on.

Let’s take a closer look.

INDIA allies target Congress

The Congress described the Haryana Assembly election results as “surprising, against popular sentiment and cannot be accepted” on Tuesday (October 8).

On Wednesday, Congress MP Rahul Gandhi said that the party is analysing the Haryana results and will apprise the Election Commission of its complaints about the counting process.

“We are analysing the unexpected results of Haryana. We will inform the Election Commission about the complaints coming from many Assembly constituencies,” the Congress leader wrote on X.

The INDIA grouping has increased pressure on the Congress after the unexpected Haryana debacle. As the results went in favour of the BJP on Tuesday, Shiv Sena (UBT) Rajya Sabha member Priyanka Chaturvedi pointed out how the Congress once again lost in a direct fight against the BJP despite anti-incumbency in Haryana.

She said, “The Congress party needs to think about its strategy too. Because wherever there is a direct fight with the BJP, the Congress party gets weakened. Why does it happen? It has to rework the entire alliance.”

Trinamool Congress (TMC) Rajya Sabha MP Sagarika Ghose said that the INDIA bloc performed well in the Lok Sabha elections in states where the Congress allied with regional parties. “It is the regional parties who are taking the BJP head-on, and defeating it. The Congress needs to realise this, and accommodate its allies better in the coming elections,” she was quoted as saying by Indian Express.

CPI general secretary D Raja asked the Congress to do “serious introspection”.

Speaking to Indian Express, Samajwadi Party MP Rajeev Rai took a potshot at the Congress, saying it should stop thinking it is the “leader” of the INDIA bloc.

“The Congress didn’t give us any seat in the Haryana election with (Bhupinder Singh) Hooda ji saying that our party doesn’t have a standing in the state… The Congress comes and asks us for seats where they have no standing, but don’t want to share seats in the states where they are strong. They have to realise that an alliance has to run on mutual respect, and that should be followed in the future,” he added.

The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) has asked the Congress to learn a lesson from the Haryana poll results and “stay united” with its partners in Maharashtra to “defeat” the BJP.

Responding to the criticism, the Congress has advised its partners in Maharashtra to follow “coalition dharma”. Congress leader Jairam Ramesh said allies should “talk to each other and not through the media.”

Tough times ahead for Congress

The Congress, which nearly doubled its tally to 99 in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, has tried to portray itself as the leader of the INDIA grouping.

A victory in Haryana would have helped the Congress to further cement that notion. It would have been a major boost for the Grand Old Party which has not won any state in north India since 2018, except Himachal Pradesh in 2022.

Not just Haryana, the Congress’ disappointing performance in J&K has also given a reason for the party to worry. In the Jammu region, the Grand Old Party got just one seat, failing to mount a challenge to the BJP. As per Indian Express, the Congress has “proved to be the weak link” in its alliance with the NC in J&K.

The loss in Haryana and below-par performance in J&K has left the party with less negotiating power in the upcoming Maharashtra and Jharkhand Assembly elections.

Last month, Congress leader Prithviraj Chavan said at an India Today’s conclave that his party should name the chief ministerial candidate. “I’ve claimed that the largest party should get this privilege, and I think the Congress party will be the largest party,” he said.

In the Maharashtra Lok Sabha elections, the Congress emerged as the single largest party. Buoyed by the results, two senior Congress leaders told Hindustan Times (HT) that the party was eyeing the distribution of seats in the Maharashtra Assembly elections on the basis of the allies’ success rate in the Lok Sabha elections.

The Congress is part of the Maha Vikas Aghadhi (MVA) alliance in the state, which also comprises Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) and Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar).

The Congress will have to be accommodative during seat-sharing talks in Maharashtra. File Photo/PTI

As per the report, there is a “tussle” between the Congress and the Shiv Sena (UBT) over which party will contest the maximum seats in the Assembly elections. The Grand Old Party has also resisted Sena’s demand to project Thackeray as the MVA’s CM face, reported Times of India (TOI).

However, the former Maharashtra CM and Shiv Sena (UBT) leader has reiterated he will support any chief ministerial face announced by the alliance to “save” the state. “I have said it earlier too and now again I am saying that Congress or NCP (SP) should announce a candidate for the Chief Ministerial post… I will support any face declared by them because Maharashtra is dear to me and it is in the interest of saving Maharashtra. It is my resolve to do anything to save Maharashtra,” Thackeray reportedly said on Tuesday.

With the Haryana loss, the Congress does not seem to have an edge over its MVA allies anymore. It will now have to be more accommodative during the seat-sharing talks.

The Congress has, however, said the Haryana poll result will not have a bearing on Maharashtra. Senior Congress leader Ramesh Chennithala said yesterday that the party cadre in the western state was not “demoralised” after the election outcome in Haryana. “The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) will unitedly defeat the Eknath Shinde-led government and the Congress wasn’t demoralised with the Haryana assembly election trends,” Chennithala, the AICC in-charge of Maharashtra, was quoted as saying by PTI.

In Jharkhand, the Congress is a junior partner of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM). The party would have to “play a secondary role” here, as per The Hindu.

Maharashtra and Jharkhand are expected to go to polls next month.

The election setback could also affect the Congress’ poll prospects in Delhi and Punjab.

Delhi will hold the Assembly election early next year. It remains to be seen whether the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Congress can come together for the Delhi polls. Currently, the AAP has ruled out the possibility of forging an alliance with an “overconfident” Congress.

The Congress had snubbed the AAP for a tie-up for Haryana polls. Addressing the party’s municipal councillors in Delhi, AAP convenor Arvind Kejriwal said, “Let us see what the results are in Haryana. The biggest lesson from this is that one should never be overconfident in elections.”

The former Delhi CM also said that “no election should be taken lightly. Each election and each seat is tough”.

His cautionary words are seen as a message to the Congress besides his own party.

With inputs from agencies