Why Modi’s Russia visit worked well for both India and the US

The United States seemed rattled by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent Russia visit, during which he held both formal and informal meetings with host President Vladimir Putin. The US continued to issue statements expressing that it was “concerned” over Modi validating Putin’s international stature when the West is attempting to pin him down, following his Ukraine adventure.

However, Modi’s Moscow visit highlighted the enduring yet evolving India-Russia relationship on one hand, and a democratic world’s in-person dialogue with cornered Putin. The US’s anxious reactions to Modi’s Moscow visit showed its nervousness over India’s socialist tilt during the Cold War years.

But despite longstanding ties rooted in the Cold War era, Modi’s Russia visit showcased the complexities of modern geopolitics, particularly in the context of India-US relations. It is no secret that Russia has been a steadfast ally of India.

And Indian leaders, including Modi, frequently describe the relationship in as many words, mincing no words. Modi did the same during his Moscow visit, calling Russia India’s “companion in joy and sorrow”. And keeping in tradition, his visit resulted in new agreements on science, trade, and climate change, reaffirming this bond.

US concerns and strategic implications

The Biden administration’s unease over Modi’s visit was palpable, especially given the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The US’s concerns centre on India’s close engagement with Putin and the continued defence cooperation between India and Russia.

The optics of Modi warmly embracing Putin, especially on a day of Russian strikes in Kyiv, added to these concerns. The US also worries about the security implications of India acquiring arms and military technology while maintaining ties with Russia.

To put in context, the Indian prime minister’s visit came when Putin had been attempting to rekindle Russia’s diplomatic outreach with visits such as to North Korea and Vietnam. His frequent interactions with China’s Xi Jinping have been continued with greater vigour and deeper exchanges especially post-Ukraine invasion.

However, it also came against the backdrop of Modi skipping the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Kazakhstan capital Astana only days before the Indian prime minister set out for Moscow. Had Modi gone there, he would have come face to face with Putin and given the India-Russia relationship, the two leaders would likely have held another round of talks on the SCO Summit sidelines. Modi skipped the meeting in a message to the US and the rest of the Western bloc that India was not siding with Russia when its action in Ukraine raises questions of international law and human rights.

India’s diversifying defence partnerships

While Russia remains India’s largest arms supplier, India has significantly increased its arms imports from the United States and other countries like France and Israel. Despite appearances, India’s military procurement trends show a shift away from Russia.

There is no denying that India’s defence preparedness must scale up given the aggressive and expansionist outlook of China in its immediate neighbourhood. China has renewed tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with fresh moves in Ladakh and near Arunachal Pradesh. China’s reactions appear to betray its nervousness over India’s growing infrastructure investments in the border areas. China often objects to all infrastructure development schemes in Arunachal Pradesh and monitors similar moves in Ladakh.

Despite this renewed challenge to India’s security, no new arms deals with Russia were announced during Modi’s visit. This, however, also underscores India’s defence diversification strategy. This trend reflects India’s broader strategy to reduce dependency on any single country for defence supplies.

Diverging geopolitical alignments

Geopolitically, India and Russia, notwithstanding their long-standing strategic partnership, are moving in different directions. India is aligning more closely with the West, which is democratic in polity and liberal in economy. India has engaged in unprecedented security cooperation with the US — from nuclear deals to defence purchases — and supporting the Indo-Pacific strategy, which Russia opposes.

Conversely, Russia is forging closer ties with China, India’s main strategic competitor, and engaging more with Pakistan. Russia is also asserting leadership in groups like BRICS and the SCO, aiming to counter Western influence.

India does its own balancing act

India’s foreign policy has always been one of balancing diverse international relationships. It is a member of both BRICS and the SCO, as well as the Indo-Pacific Quad, aiming to bridge the global south and the developed world. Putin’s ally Xi views the Quad — India, Australia, Japan and the US — as a challenge to its monopolistic designs in the Asia-Pacific region.

Xi’s support to Putin depends a lot on reciprocation. Despite the world expressing concerns over China’s growing territorial claims and adventures in the South China Sea and the littoral nations, Putin does not condemn or criticise Xi’s salami slicing policy in the region. The Quad aims to challenge this hegemonist approach in the Asia-Pacific. And India remains committed to the Quad, which is slated to conduct a joint naval exercise in the South China Sea later this year.

Additionally, Russia faces increasing isolation due to the Ukraine conflict, India finds more opportunities for global engagement independently of Moscow. The war has also strained India’s food and energy security, bringing Russia closer to China and challenging India’s balancing act.

India is not against Ukraine

While India has not condemned Russia’s war in Ukraine, it has consistently called for peace, a stance Modi reiterated during his visit. This position reflects India’s opposition to the conflict, which has adversely affected its national interests. Even during his latest meeting with Putihn, Modi called for establishing peace through dialogue between Ukraine and Russia.

Modi categorically said during his interactions with Putin that “bombs and guns don’t solve problems”. He has frequently made appeals for peace, though unlikely to sway Putin, contributed to international pressure on Russia to de-escalate the conflict.

India-Russia partnership as a check on Russia-China relations

The India-Russia relationship serves as a counterbalance to the deepening Russia-China alliance, a concern for both Washington and New Delhi. India remains one of Russia’s few powerful friends outside China, ensuring that Moscow must maintain its ties with New Delhi even as it leans on Beijing for support.

This dynamic places inherent limits on the so-called “no limits” partnership between Russia and China, particularly regarding potential conflicts involving India. This equation becomes even more significant given the West has shunned Putin and is in no mood to engage him in any dialogue.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant against Putin on the charge of abducting children from Ukraine for recruitment in the military. India and Modi remain a key communication channel between non-talking West on one hand and Russia and Putin on the other if peace has a chance to return in eastern Europe.

Though it might have appeared to be awkward momentarily for US-India relations, the Modi-Putin summit underscored that the Russia factor was a manageable challenge. It nuanced the reality that India’s ties with Russia, while significant, do not necessarily preclude its growing partnership with the US. Through the Ukraine war, India has maintained its ties with Russia, enhancing oil and other trades while ensuring that the world’s two largest democracies continue to navigate  and leverage their shared interests to address broader geopolitical challenges.