Why Nepal PM Dahal is likely to fail today's trust vote after surviving four earlier

While Nepal’s Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal managed to secure the vote of confidence in four consecutive tries, many believe that he is “almost certain” to lose it on the fifth try when the no-confidence motion goes to the floor on Friday.

The chances of Dahal losing his prime ministerial post reached an all-time high after CPN-UML, the largest coalition partner in the Dahal administration withdrew its support on July 3. After getting elected on December 25, 2022, Dahal has been leading the minority government since then.

Immediately after the UML withdrew its support, the Janata Samajbadi Party, led by Ashok Rai also pulled the plug. While UML had 77 seats, the relatively new party led by Rai contributed 7 seats to the alliance. On July 5, Dahal announced that his government underwent a floor test after UML withdrew its support.

Where does Dahal stand right now? 

The Nepalese Prime Minister opted for the floor test in accordance with Article 100(2) of the constitution. “If the political party which the prime minister represents is divided or a political party in coalition government withdraws its support, the prime minister shall table a motion in the House of Representatives for a vote of confidence within thirty days," the Article reads.

When Dahal went to the floor test for the first time, he garnered the support of 268 lawmakers and saved his seat. However, in his fifth-floor test, his votes are likely to be slashed by almost 200 this time. With Dahal’s key alliance partners leaving the coalition, Dahal is likely to get 32 votes from his CPN (Maoist Centre), 21 from the Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and 10 from the CPN (Unified Socialist).

Interestingly, RSP has called for a parliamentary meeting on Friday. However, they have maintained that they will continue to support the Nepalese premier. “Since we have been continuing in the government despite being in a minority, we are morally bound to give the vote of trust to Prime Minister Dahal," a party lawmaker told Kathmandu Post.

Shifting alliances in Dahal’s turbulent regime

Dahal’s government has to get 138 votes to secure a majority in the 275-strong House. The Congress and UML have 88 and 77 seats respectively, and have decided to vote against the Nepalese Prime Minister. Likewise, the Rashtriya Prajantra Party, which has 14 seats, has also decided to vote against Dahal.

After Dahal won the election in 2022, he notoriously exploited the support of both the Congress and the UML. Dahal first became the prime minister with UML’s support. When Dahal decided to support Congress candidate Ramchandra Paudel in the presidential election, the UML withdrew its support.

In the second-floor test, the prime minister was supported by Congress. However, on March 4 this year, Dahal broke its coalition with the Congress to join hands with UML again. In the third-floor test, he was supported by UML.

In the fourth floor test in May, Dahal had to seek the parliament’s confidence after a group of seven lawmakers from his coalition partner Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal left the party and formed a new outfit under the leadership of Rai.

As per the understanding between the UML and Congress, UML supremo KP Sharma Oli will lead a ‘national consensus government’ for a year and a half if Dahal fails in the fourth-floor test.

With inputs from agencies.