Why Nord Stream gas pipelines matter, not just for gas but also European politics

Volodymyr Z, a Ukrainian national, is now wanted by Germany. Authorities have issued an arrest warrant against him after almost two years of probe. He is accused of blasting Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022. Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy government denies its involvement in the act that has strained relations in Europe across the Baltic Sea.

Media reports from Germany and the US say that Volodymyr Z was part of a six-person team that dived into the Baltic Sea and planted explosives on both pipes of Nord Stream 1 and one of the two pipes of Nord Stream 2.

While there is not enough clarity about the real identity of Volodymyr Z (presumably a codename of the operative), Poland officials have reportedly confirmed to Germany that the suspect was in their country in July before heading to his home country.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the Nord Stream operation was planned at the top level in the Ukrainian government, with senior officials involved in it. “The whole thing was born out of a night of heavy boozing and the iron determination of a handful of people who had the guts to risk their lives for their country,” an officer reportedly involved in the plot was quoted as saying.

Reports also say that it was President Volodymyr Zelenskyy who originally approved the plan but when it leaked to the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), it pressured the Ukrainian leader to abandon the plot.

If Zelenskyy reversed course and backtracked from exploding Nord Stream pipelines, then who authorised it?

Reports indicated that Zelenskyy’s commander in chief had already committed to the plan and went ahead with the operation despite the Ukrainian president having decided against it.

In an interesting move, Zelenskyy’s presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak blamed the explosions on Russia in a statement on Thursday as he denied Ukraine’s role in the sabotage operation.

Russia, on its part, has maintained that the explosions were approved by the US, the UK and Ukraine. All three have denied any involvement.

But the Nord Stream has always been a problem

In the 2000s, Germany held rounds of talks with Russia to build a direct pipeline for gas supply. Its purpose was to reduce the cost to Germany and ensure long-term energy security.

Before the Nord Stream pipelines, Russian gas flowed through Ukraine, which earned a handsome sum of $2 billion a year as transit fee. The cost was obviously paid by consumers, the Germans in this case. At today’s rates, the construction of Nord Stream cost $8.1 billion.

When Germany and Russia were discussing an alternative route bypassing Ukraine, it offered an earning opportunity to Poland. But Germany and Russia decided to take the sea route.

When Nord Streams were being formalised and operationalised, Ukraine and Poland were among those vocal in their opposition to the pipelines citing security concerns.

A short timeline of North Streams

2005: Though early talks began in the 1990s, German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin signed a declaration in 2005 to build the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.
2010: The construction of Nord Stream 1, a 1,224 kilometre-long twin pipeline began on both Russia and German sides.
2012: The Nord Stream pipelines are launched, with the operator saying that the Nord Stream can supply gas to Europe for the next 50 years, if not more.
2013: Planning Nord Stream 2 gets underway — two pipelines of 1,250 km to run parallel to Nord Stream 1.

Crimea and after

In March 2014, Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, drawing flak from across Europe and America. But then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel decided not to suspend the pipeline project.

The annexation of Crimea, however, made Ukraine and Poland more critical of the Nord Streams, expressing reservations over security concerns. The European Union (EU) had its own concerns about energy security and the possibility of a new diplomatic alignment.

In the US after 2016, Donald Trump as president warned Germany, saying it was becoming too dependent on Russian energy supplies. Trump viewed it as Putin getting more levers than he deserved to work against the West.

Germany ignored these concerns as Nord Streams not only came up as an answer to Europe’s lingering energy supply concern but also as a long-term guarantee of stability as it involved huge cash flow.

With the construction beginning in 2018, the US burst out in anger with its ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, writing threatening letters to German companies involved in Nord Streams.

Nord Stream 2 was completed in 2021, when incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz was elected to office. Scholz asserted that the gas pipelines should be viewed as a commercial private sector project and assessed independently of the West’s relation with Putin’s Russia.

The invasion of Ukraine and explosion at Nord Streams

In February, Russia invaded Ukraine, an ally of Germany. The invasion vindicated the misgivings that Ukraine had been speaking about. The invasion brought a range of sanctions against Russia while gas supplies via Nord Streams continued.

Russia shut down Nord Stream 1 over July-August 2022, ostensibly for maintenance reasons but largely believed as a tool to pressure the West to ease sanctions over Ukrainian invasion. Though gas supplies resumed but earlier flow level was not restored.

And amid this, a team of suspected trained Ukrainian persons dived into the Baltic Sea to attach explosives to three Nord Stream pipes, Danish island of Bornholm. Soon, Germany launched an investigation in coordination with Denmark and Sweden.

Now, after two years, Germany has issued an arrest warrant against one of the six suspects identified as Volodymyr Z —a name with an eerie resemblance with that of the Ukrainian president— for blasting Nord Stream gas pipelines.