Why Russia’s assault on Pokrovsk could decide the fate of eastern Ukraine

Russia’s escalating efforts to seize the town of Pokrovsk is in itself a testament to its strategic importance in the broader conflict in eastern Ukraine. Situated in the Donetsk region, Pokrovsk is not just another town on the map, but a crucial logistics hub, economic engine and symbol of Ukrainian resistance. The town’s strategic, economic and symbolic importance has made it a prime target for Russian forces whose recent advances suggest an intensification of their campaign to secure the area.

Strategic and logistical significance

Pokrovsk occupies a central position in Ukraine’s defence strategy in the Donbas region. Its key railway station and the intersection of several vital roadways make it indispensable for the movement of troops, military supplies and the evacuation of wounded soldiers. The town’s infrastructure is crucial for sustaining Ukraine’s frontline defences, particularly as the conflict in eastern Ukraine shows no signs of abating. Ukrainian forces rely heavily on the town’s rail and road networks to maintain their defensive positions against Russian advances. The town’s strategic location enables it to act as a gateway to other critical areas in the region making its control essential for either side.

For months, Russian forces have been attempting to capture Pokrovsk, recognising its importance as a logistical hub that supports Ukraine’s military efforts in the east. The Russian advance has gained momentum recently, with troops now reportedly less than 10 kilometres away from the town. According to military expert Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov as quoted by the BBC, the loss of Pokrovsk could lead to the collapse of the entire front line severely hampering Ukraine’s ability to reinforce its troops and evacuate the wounded. This would not only complicate military operations but also place other strategically important towns, such as Chasiv Yar, at greater risk. Chasiv Yar, located on higher ground, provides a commanding view over the surrounding area, making it a key defensive position. Analyst Pavlo Narozhny emphasised that if Russia succeeds in cutting off logistics to Pokrovsk, it would only be a matter of time before Ukrainian forces would be forced to withdraw from Chasiv Yar due to an inability to supply their fighters.

Economic and industrial importance

Beyond its military significance, Pokrovsk is also an economic powerhouse in the Donetsk region. Before the war, the town was a thriving industrial centre, with a population of approximately 69,000 residents, many of whom were employed in coal mining, metallurgy and machine-building. Pokrovsk is home to Ukraine’s largest producer of coking coal, a critical resource for the country’s metallurgy industry. The town’s industrial output has been a vital contributor to Ukraine’s economy, particularly in the heavily industrialised eastern regions. Metals, produced in part due to the resources extracted from the Pokrovsk area, were Ukraine’s main export product before the full-scale Russian invasion, accounting for 23 per cent of the country’s total goods exports. The capture of Pokrovsk would thus deliver a significant blow to Ukraine’s industrial capabilities further crippling an economy already ravaged by war.

The town’s industrial infrastructure has also been repurposed to support Ukraine’s defence efforts. The large number of industrial buildings in Pokrovsk and neighbouring towns such as Myrnohrad have provided Ukrainian forces with cover and fortified positions. As one Ukrainian soldier, identified as Ostap, told the BBC’s Ukrainecast podcast, the industrialised nature of the area presents a considerable challenge to Russian forces.

Humanitarian impact

The conflict in Pokrovsk has had a devastating impact on the town’s civilian population. As Russian forces continue their advance, thousands of residents have been forced to flee, leaving behind their homes, jobs and communities. The recent intensification of Russian military operations has prompted Ukrainian authorities to issue evacuation orders for families with children, adding to the already substantial humanitarian crisis. Organisations like Doctors Without Borders have stepped in to assist with the evacuation of vulnerable populations, including children, the elderly and those with reduced mobility. The situation in Pokrovsk is dire, with evacuation trains stopping in the city of Dnipro, where some displaced residents find temporary refuge with relatives, while others seek shelter in western Ukraine.

The capture of Pokrovsk by Russian forces would exacerbate this humanitarian crisis, leading to further destruction, loss of life and suffering. Ukrainian soldiers stationed in the area have expressed grave concerns about the potential consequences of a Russian victory. According to a CNN report, the fall of Pokrovsk would result in the total destruction of the town and neighbouring cities like Myrnohrad, with many civilian casualties and widespread devastation. The psychological toll on the remaining residents would be immense, as they would witness the destruction of their homes and the unravelling of their communities.

Beyond the immediate humanitarian concerns, Pokrovsk also holds significant symbolic value in the broader context of the conflict. For Russia, capturing Pokrovsk would be a major propaganda victory, providing the Kremlin with a narrative to counterbalance the embarrassment of Ukraine’s recent gains in Russia’s Kursk region. The town’s capture would be portrayed as a key step toward fulfilling Russia’s declared goal of occupying the entire Donetsk region, which Moscow claimed as part of its territory in September 2022. A Newsweek report said that this would further solidify Russia’s control over eastern Ukraine and serve as a powerful symbol of its military achievements despite the challenges it faces on other fronts.

Tactical implications

The situation on the ground in Pokrovsk has become increasingly precarious in recent weeks. Russian forces have made significant progress, reportedly seizing nearby areas and advancing towards the town from multiple directions. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russian troops have advanced in eastern Karlivka, southeast of Pokrovsk and northeast of Mykolaivka. They have also reportedly moved into the southeastern outskirts of Novohrodivka, capturing the Novohrodivka City Council and establishing positions in high-rise buildings. Securing the town would allow Russian forces to establish a more robust presence in the region enhancing their ability to launch further offensives into Ukrainian-held territory.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region, which was intended to divert Russian forces from their eastern advance, has not had the desired effect. Instead of pulling back, Russian forces have doubled down on their efforts to capture Pokrovsk, intensifying their offensive operations in the area. This has raised concerns that Ukraine may have overextended its forces, leaving gaps in its defences in the Donetsk region.

The battle for Pokrovsk is emblematic of the broader struggle for control in eastern Ukraine. For Russia, capturing the town would be a significant military and symbolic victory, furthering its goals of securing the Donetsk region and weakening Ukraine’s defensive capabilities. For Ukraine, the loss of Pokrovsk would represent a major setback, jeopardising its ability to sustain its frontline defences and exacerbating the already dire humanitarian situation in the region.