Why South Korea fears a Trump second term

South Korea is preparing for a diplomatic challenge if Donald Trump wins the White House again in November as analysts warn that a second Trump presidency could disrupt Seoul’s global alliances and security commitments.

According to a South China Morning Post report, there is particular concern in Seoul that Trump might use North Korea’s increasing nuclear threats as leverage to compel South Korea to bear more of the costs for the 28,500 US troops stationed on the peninsula and joint military exercises, thereby severely straining the crucial US-South Korea alliance.

Despite these worries, President Yoon Suk-yeol has expressed optimism that relations would remain robust even if Trump returns to office, the report added.

Meanwhile, Fred Fleitz, a former senior security official under Trump, arrived in Seoul this week aiming to calm Korean concerns.

In interviews with local media, he refuted claims that Trump had threatened to withdraw US troops unless Seoul paid billions more.

“I believe President Trump values the friendship with South Korea. Trump is known for making deals. However, this is a matter that needs negotiation,” South China Morning Post quoted Fleitz as saying during an interview with Channel-A TV in Seoul on Tuesday.

He dismissed proposals that South Korea should develop its own nuclear weapons to counter escalating North Korean threats and the strengthening ties between Moscow and Pyongyang.

“I think reassuring Japan, South Korea of the US nuclear umbrella is crucial, and I believe that Mr Trump will do that,” he added.

Trump to revive personal diplomacy with Kim?

Speculation is rife that if Trump is reelected, he may attempt to revive his direct diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Their efforts stalled at the 2019 Hanoi summit when negotiations broke down after Kim insisted on the complete removal of US sanctions in exchange for only partial nuclear concessions.

“I believe very strongly that Trump probably will try to resume personal diplomacy with Kim,” Fleitz said during the television interview.

“He frequently says in his campaign speeches that his diplomacy with leader Kim was one of the big successes of his foreign policy.”

During a separate press briefing on Tuesday, Fleitz told journalists that if Trump were reelected, he would urge Kim to fulfill his 2018 commitment to denuclearise and would also insist that North Korea cease sending weapons to Russia as a prerequisite for restarting any talks.

However, Moon Seong-mook of the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy told This Week in Asia that a second Trump administration would face significant challenges in reviving talks.

“A deal with Kim means the US acknowledges the North as a nuclear-armed state and seeks mutual disarmament,” he said. “Could Washington stomach this?”

“They may say whatever they want to say, as they are not in office now, but they would find it a different matter if they try to translate those words into policies.”

Bloated bills for Seoul?

Sohn Yul, a political science professor at Seoul National University, expressed concern that Trump’s policy shift towards domestic priorities could weaken Washington’s commitment to its allies’ defence.

He warned that a second Trump term could lead to “hugely bloated bills” for Seoul concerning US troops and joint military exercises, complicating President Yoon’s position amid low approval ratings.

“The Yoon government would face two difficult choices – accept the bills and risk losing power, or reject the bills and risk the withdrawal of at least part of the US troops from South Korea,” Sohn told South China Morning Post.

Under a second Trump presidency, South Korea might face pressure to address its substantial trade surplus with the US, which has surpassed China in recent years.

In the first half of this year, South Korea reported a $27.4 billion trade surplus with the US, up 50 per cent from the previous year, while its deficit with China narrowed significantly.

Challenges and opportunities for South Korea

Yang Moo-jin, a political science professor and dean of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, anticipated that another Trump presidency would bring both challenges and opportunities for South Korea.

He noted potential improvements in US-Russia relations under Trump, but also anticipated worsening US-China relations, given China’s rising global influence.

Fleitz remarked on Channel-A TV that Trump would prioritise China as the “number one threat,” contrasting other issues that are “clearly not at the top of the list of national security threats.”

Yang emphasised the importance of stable US-China relations in reducing tensions on the Korean peninsula. He also suggested that renewed talks between Trump and Kim could ease inter-Korean tensions, but cautioned that the fate of the “Washington Declaration,” strengthening US-South Korea nuclear deterrence, could be uncertain under a new Trump administration.

Yang further observed potential clashes between Yoon’s ideology-driven diplomacy, which aims to strengthen ties with the US, Japan, and Nato, and Trump’s “America First” foreign policy.

“The Yoon government would struggle to reconcile its ideology-based diplomacy with Trump’s prioritisation of American interests,” Yang told This Week in Asia.