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Iran, which has vowed to avenge the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, is unlikely to budge. Reports say that the attack on Israel could be launched within the next few days, even hours. Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, is mulling a preemptive strike on Iran read more
 "Will Iran attack Israel today? What will this mean for West Asia?")
Interceptions of rockets launched from Lebanon to Israel over the border, amid ongoing cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces. The Lebanon-based militant group has vowed to avenge the killing of Fuad Shukr, a top Hezbollah commander, who killed in Beirut in an Israeli airstrike on July 30. File photo/Reuters
Tensions have escalated in West Asia. An all-out war seems inevitable. An assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran hours after Iran’s newly elected president Masoud Pezeshkian was sworn in has left the country humiliated and angry. Haniyeh’s killing (on 31 July) came a day after Israel killed top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in an airstrike in Lebanon’s capital Beirut.
Hezbollah and Hamas are both Iran’s proxies. Now Tehran and the militant groups have vowed revenge. And Israel has said is prepared for “aggression” against it after threats of retaliation after the killing of Haniyeh and Shukr.
Amid heightened tensions, countries, including India, have issued advisories to their nationals in Lebanon amid fears of a widening conflict. It is believed that Lebanon-based Hezbollah could play a big part in the retaliation against Israel.
What is the possibility of Iran attacking Israel? And could happen next?
How did tensions escalate once again in West Asia?
The conflict started after last year’s 7 October attacks on Israel in which Hamas killed 12,000 Israelis and abducted 250. Israel responded with air strikes and ground offensive in Gaza, which has left more than 40,000 people dead.
There have been talks of a ceasefire but little progress has been made.
The situation escalated recently after a rocket attack on Israeli-controlled Golan Heights killed 12 young people on July28. It was the deadliest loss of life in and around Israel’s northern border since last October, reports the BBC.
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) responded by conducting airstrikes against Hezbollah targets “deep inside Lebanon territory”. On July 30, Shukr, who Israel claimed was behind the Golan Heights attack, was killed in Beirut.
On July 31, Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran. While Israel has not denied or claimed responsibility, fingers point to the involvement of Mossad, the country’s intelligence agency.
On August 1, IDF claimed that it had eliminated Mohammed Deif. The Hamas commander who reportedly planned the October 7 attacks was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Gaza on July 13.
These killings are a huge victory for Israel, which had vowed to avenge last year’s attacks by Hamas.
What has been the response to these attacks?
Both Hamas and Hezbollah are backed by Iran.
Haniyeh’s killing has left Iran insulted. Its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ordered Iran to strike Israel directly. He gave the order at an emergency meeting of Iran’s Security National Council on July 31, shortly after Haniyeh was killed, according to The New York Times.
The deaths of Haniyeh and Deif have left Hamas rattled. The assassination of its political leader came as a shock to the Palestinian militant group, which has also vowed to seek revenge.
Hezbollah has been firing rockets at northern Israel since the death of Shukr.
Will Iran directly attack Israel?
Talking about the assassination of the Hamas chief, Ali Akbar Behmanesh, a prominent politician in Iran, said in an interview, “This attack was a huge slap in the face for Iran’s status in the region. It humiliated our country and undermined our entire security apparatus, showed that we have serious holes in intelligence.”
Now Iran is refusing to back down. It has rejected attempts by US and Arab nations to de-escalate tension in West Asia, saying it would strike the Jewish nation even if it means war, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal (WSJ).
Foreign ministers from Jordan and Lebanon reportedly travelled to Iran to persuade the regime not to retaliate. However, Iran told the Arab diplomats it was set on striking back against Israel and “it didn’t care if the response triggered a war”, the report says.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told his counterparts from G7 countries on Sunday that the attack by Iran and Hezbollah against Israel could start as early as Monday, sources told Axios.
Blinken said the US doesn’t know the exact timing of the attacks but stressed it could start as early as the next 24-48 hours — meaning as early as Monday, the sources were quoted as saying by the publication.
Sky News Arabia reported Iran plans to carry out its attack on Tisha B’av, called the “saddest day for Jews”, on August 12-13.
On April 13, Iran launched nearly 350 attack drones and missiles toward Israel. The Jewish nation, the US and its allies worked to intercept most of them. However, Blinken told his G7 counterparts that it was unclear what form of retaliation would take this time.
What is the threat from Hezbollah?
Hezbollah, which is Iran’s ally, has its roots deep in Lebanon. The militant group has been involved in regular exchanges of fire with Israel.
The Hezbollah on Sunday fired at least a dozen Katyusha rockets into northern Israel, hitting Moshav Beit Hillel, reports news agency AFP. Video footage shows Israel’s Iron Dome intercepting most of the missiles.
Hezbollah has in its possession sophisticated drones and precision-guided missiles. Its arsenal is far more advanced than Hamas. Hezbollah’s missiles have the capability of overwhelming Israel’s aerial defences, analysts have been quoted as saying by The New York Times.
What can we expect from Israel?
Israel could consider launching a preemptive strike on Iran if it found any evidence of Tehran preparing to mount an attack, The Times of Israel reported quoting Hebrew media.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a meeting of Israel’s security chiefs on Sunday to assess the situation. It was attended by Israel’s Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, IDF Chief of Staff Lt Gen Herzi Halevi, Mossad head David Barnea and Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar.
After threats from Iran and Hezbollah, Netanyahu said last week that Israel was prepared for any “aggression”. “Israel is at a very high level of preparation for any scenario, both defensive and offensive. We will make any act of aggression against us pay a very high price," Netanyahu said in a statement on Thursday (August 1). “Those who attack us, we will attack in return.”
Will the US and other Israel allies get involved?
Following threats from Iran and its proxies, the US is seeking to bolster defences in West Asia.
The US is sending warships and fighter squadrons to the region, reportedly the largest movement of US forces since the early days of the Gaza war.
US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin had approved sending additional navy cruisers and destroyers, which can shoot down ballistic missiles, to West Asia and Europe. It is also sending an additional squadron of fighter jets to the West Asia.
“Austin has ordered adjustments to US military posture designed to improve U.S. force protection, to increase support for the defence of Israel, and to ensure the United States is prepared to respond to various contingencies,” the Pentagon said in a statement.
Israel’s defence officials are coordinating with the UK and the US ahead of an expected strike by Iran. Gallant said in a statement Friday that he spoke with his American and British counterparts, Austin and John Healey, and provided “a situational assessment in light of recent security developments”.
When Iran attacked Israel in April, an ad hoc international coalition comprising the US, the UK, French, Saudi and Jordanian airforces helped Israel intercept and destroy most of the projectiles. While the Pentagon is hoping to put together a similar operation, many countries may not agree to participate, according to a report in The Guardian.
Is a de-escalation possible?
The rare visit by the Jordanian foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, to Iran in the last-ditch effort to dissuade it from attacking Israel appears to have failed.
Blinken told his G7 counterparts that it was making efforts to break the retaliatory cycle. Washington is trying to limit the attacks by Iran and Hezbollah and then restrain Israel’s response, reports Axios. He reportedly asked G7 foreign ministers to apply diplomatic pressure on Iran, Hezbollah and Israel to maintain maximum restraint.
Now Iran’s next steps might be crucial in determining whether West Asia sees more conflict.
With inputs from agencies
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English (US) ·